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An end of summer snowline (EOSS) photographic dataset for Aotearoa New Zealand contains over four decades of equilibrium line altitude (ELA) observations for more than 50 index glaciers. This dataset provides an opportunity to create a climatological ELA reference series that has several applications. Our work screened out EOSS sites that had low temporal coverage and also removed limited observations when the official survey did not take place. Snowline data from 41 of 50 glaciers in the EOSS dataset were retained and included in a normalised master snowline series that spans 1977–2020. Application of the regionally representative normalised master snowline series in monthly and seasonally resolved climate response function analyses showed consistently strong relationships with austral warm-season temperatures for land-based stations west of the Southern Alps and the central Tasman Sea. There is a trend towards higher regional snowlines since the 1990s that has been steepening in recent decades. If contemporary decadal normalised master snowline series trends are maintained, the average Southern Alps snowline elevation will be displaced at least 200 m higher than normal by the 2025–2034 decade. More frequent extremely high snowlines are expected to drive more extreme cumulative mass-balance losses that will reduce the glacierised area of Aotearoa New Zealand.
Tidewater glaciers have been observed to experience instantaneous, stepwise increases in velocity during iceberg-calving events due to a loss of resistive stresses. These changes in stress can potentially impact tidewater glacier stability by promoting additional calving and affecting the viscous delivery of ice to the terminus. Using flow models and perturbation theory, we demonstrate that calving events and subsequent terminus readvance produce quasi-periodic, sawtooth oscillations in stress that originate at the terminus and propagate upstream. The stress perturbations travel at speeds much greater than the glacier velocities and, for laterally resisted glaciers, rapidly decay within a few ice thickness of the terminus. Consequently, because terminus fluctuations due to individual calving events tend to be much higher frequency than climate variations, individual calving events have little direct impact on the viscous delivery of ice to the terminus. This suggests that the primary mechanism by which calving events can trigger instability is by causing fluctuations in stress that weaken the ice and lead to additional calving and sustained terminus retreat. Our results further demonstrate a stronger response to calving events in simulations that include the full stress tensor, highlighting the importance of accounting for higher order stresses when developing calving parameterizations.
The Pearl River Delta (PRD) is the largest megalopolis region in the world, which is located at the estuary of the Pearl River Basin and dominated by sub-tropical and humid monsoon climate. This unique geographical setting makes the PRD highly exposed to pluvial, fluvial and coastal floods. Under climate change, the changes in precipitation regime intensify precipitation extremes, especially at the sub-daily scale, leading to higher risks of pluvial floods in the urban areas and fluvial floods in the riversides. Coastal floods also become more extreme due to the intensification of tropical cyclones and sea level rises. Future projections from CMIP5 Global Climate Models (GCMs) agree on further increases in the risk of these three types of floods, despite the uncertainties in the magnitude of changes. To counter the rising flood threat, PRD cities have adopted various measures to prevent and mitigate flood hazards. Hard measures, such as the three-pronged approach for pluvial flood prevention in Hong Kong and reservoir regulations for fluvial flood prevention for riverside cities, have been successfully implemented. To achieve sustainable flood management for future extreme floods, non-engineering measures should be further improved for playing a more important role in flood warning, prevention and mitigation.
Land use change has transformed ecosystem pattern and process across most of the terrestrial biosphere, a global change that could be potentially catastrophic for both humankind and the environment. Chapter 5 explores how this threat is related to the underpricing of natural landscape in all economies, and how addressing this critical problem is essential to creating the incentives, institutions and innovations needed to change humankind’s relationship with nature. The underpricing of natural landscape also perpetuates rural poverty, and the impacts of land use change are borne increasingly by the poor. Decoupling development from excessive land use change leading to ecosystem decline is necessary to make our economies both more sustainable and inclusive. Global biodiversity conservation is also plagued by underfunding, as the international community struggles to compensate developing countries for protecting valuable terrestrial habitats. Collective action will require commitments not only by rich countries to assist poorer ones in protection and restoration efforts but also by the private sector to invest in nature to reduce the risks from biodiversity and ecosystem loss.
Wildlife movements within a landscape are influenced by environmental factors such as food availability and, as human-modified landscapes continue to expand, the risks associated with encountering people. For Asian elephants Elephas maximus, human-dominated landscapes can be a risky but also rewarding habitat. When elephants share space with people, negative human–elephant interactions are common, sometimes resulting in injuries or deaths of both people and elephants. We monitored elephant movements in and out of a forest reserve in central Sri Lanka to test four predictions regarding elephant behaviour: (1) visits to agricultural areas occur at times of the year when crops are plentiful, (2) elephants exploit these areas by night to avoid interactions with people, (3) increased nocturnal illumination reduces use of agricultural areas, and (4) males make greater use of anthropogenic food sources than family groups. Analysis of camera-trap data confirmed that elephants visited human-dominated areas mostly at night. The frequency of such incursions was not influenced by moon phase for males, but there was a weak effect of moon phase for family groups. Males moved more frequently into human-dominated landscapes than family groups, and their movements showed a distinct seasonal pattern, peaking at times of rice and fruit harvest. Our findings suggest that elephants primarily venture into human-dominated areas to consume crops. Encouraging farmers in areas frequented by elephants to adapt land-use practices (e.g. guarding crops, fencing villages, planting orange/citrus fences) and establish early warning systems could help limit the damage caused by elephants.
Contemporary conservation professionals are part of a workforce focused on overcoming complex challenges under great time pressure. The characteristics of conservation work, and in particular the evolving demands placed on the workforce, mean that to remain effective these professionals need to enhance their skills and abilities continually. Currently, there are no sector-wide guidelines to promote systematic professional development that addresses both individual and organizational learning. This study builds upon existing knowledge from other sectors by examining professional development in conservation through an in-depth qualitative thematic analysis of interviews with 22 conservation professionals, resulting in an effectiveness framework for professional development in the conservation sector. Our findings indicate how individuals’ motivation to learn, proactivity, open-mindedness towards alternative information and views were considered preconditions for effective professional development. A balance between organizational goals and career ambitions was found essential to maintain this motivation to learn and vital for staff retention and preservation of institutional knowledge. Professional development plans may help distinguish between individual career aspirations and organizational objectives and aid a discussion between staff and management on how to balance the two. Leaders have the opportunity to remove barriers to effective professional development. We discuss solutions to overcome specific barriers, to promote an inclusive approach for diverse learners through provision of opportunities, effective learning design, and resource distribution for professional development. This effectiveness framework can be used by conservationists and conservation organizations to plan and decide on professional development.
Habitat loss and fragmentation are major threats to primate populations globally. The Endangered golden monkey Cercopithecus mitis kandti is only found in two small forest fragments: the Virunga massif in Rwanda, Uganda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and the Gishwati Forest in Rwanda. Little is known about the abundance and distribution of this subspecies, or threats to its survival. During 2007–2018, we collected data along 893.7 km of line transects and 354.2 km of recce trails in Volcanoes National Park and in Gishwati–Mukura National Park to estimate golden monkey density and examine any threats. In Volcanoes National Park, golden monkeys were found almost exclusively in the bamboo zone, and in Gishwati–Mukura National Park they occurred only in the remnant tropical montane Gishwati Forest. In Volcanoes National Park, density was estimated to be 7.89 (95% CI: 3.85–16.19), 5.41 (2.64–11.08), and 5.47 (3.68–8.14) groups per km2 in 2007, 2011 and 2017–2018, respectively. This corresponds to a total of 4,331 individuals (95% CI: 2,723–5,938) in 2007, 4,487 (2,903–6,071) in 2011 and 4,626 (4,165–5,088) in 2017–2018. In Gishwati Forest, group density averaged 1.98 (95% CI: 1.27–3.16) per km2, corresponding to 172 (95% CI: 154–190) individuals in 2017–2018. Survey results from Volcanoes National Park suggest that the golden monkey population has been stable during 2007–2018. Limited habitat, illegal activities such as harvesting of bamboo and firewood, and the presence of feral dogs, threaten the golden monkey in Rwanda and require continued monitoring. The development of a conservation action plan is a priority to protect this species.
In this study we investigate the effectiveness of environmental regulation in a large developing country. We construct a panel of 3,436 major toxics polluters from 2004 to 2015 using detailed plant-specific data on toxics releases, inspections, and fines, across Mexico. Our results show that regulators target polluters who are significantly non-compliant and impose higher fines on them. This has implications for the cost efficiency of monitoring and regulatory enforcement. An additional priority violation increases current toxics inspections, fines, and amount of fines by 7, 5 and 18 per cent, respectively. An additional priority violation followed by fines imposed on the plant results in a reduction in annual toxics releases by more than 50 per cent. Higher fines imposed on other major facilities in the same municipality induce plants to reduce the annual release of toxic pollutants by 0.1 per cent. Finally, inspections and fines increase the likelihood of reporting toxics releases.
This is our climate change status check, and the first three things to understand are that climate change is real, anthropogenic (i.e., caused by humans), and dangerous. To drive home those points, this chapter relies heavily on the science of the landmark IPCC climate assessments and particularly the most recent AR5 report. We drill down on a key figure from the AR5 to clarify the observed data since 1850 in respect of global average surface temperatures, sea level rise, atmospheric concentrations of several greenhouse gases, and annual CO2 emissions. With a second figure we examine the sources of climate forcing since 1950 and clarify the degree to which they are caused by humanity or by nature. We then divert to key facets that we don’t yet fully understand about climate change, including tipping points, “climate sensitivity” and the likely emissions pathway that humanity will choose over the remainder of the century. We conclude with the observation that irrespective of how these mysteries play out, substantial climate change is in our future. It’s coming.
We conduct extended versions of the ISMIP6 future climate experiments for the Greenland ice sheet until the year 3000 with the model SICOPOLIS. Beyond 2100, the climate forcing is kept fixed at late-21st-century conditions. For the unabated warming pathway RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5, the ice sheet suffers a severe mass loss, which amounts to ~ 1.8 m SLE (sea-level equivalent) for the 12-experiment mean, and ~ 3.5 m SLE (~ 50% of the entire mass) for the most sensitive experiment. For the reduced emissions pathway RCP2.6/SSP1-2.6, the mass loss is limited to a two-experiment mean of ~ 0.28 m SLE. Climate-change mitigation during the next decades will therefore be an efficient means for limiting the contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to sea-level rise in the long term.
This chapter discusses the problem of selecting predictors in a linear regression model, which is a special case of model selection. One might think that the best model is the one with the most predictors. However, each predictor is associated with a parameter that must be estimated, and errors in the estimation add uncertainty to the final prediction. Thus, when deciding whether to include certain predictors or not, the associated gain in prediction skill should exceed the loss due to estimation error. Model selection is not easily addressed using a hypothesis testing framework because multiple testing is involved. Instead, the standard approach is to define a criterion for preferring one model over another. One criterion is to select the model that gives the best predictions of independent data. By independent data, we mean data that is generated independently of the sample that was used to inform the model building process. Criteria for identifying the model that gives the best predictions in independent data include Mallows’ Cp, Akaike’s Information Criterion, Bayesian Information Criterion, and cross-validated error.
An overview of the evolution of different fossil fuel sources, including coal, conventional and unconventional (tight) oil, oil sand, conventional natural gas, unconventional shale gas, and coalbed methane. The chapter provides the data on energy flows and evaluates the global energy consumption for understanding the magnitude of these developments. The chapter also presents the traditional water–energy concept; the amount of water withdrawal and consumption for fossil fuel exploration in the recovery stage (coal mining, oil and gas drilling, mining, hydraulic fracturing, oil enhancement), processing (coal washing, oil refinery), conversion (electricity production), and post-conversion (waste disposal). The chapter examines the water intensity metrics by normalizing the water volume-per-energy unit of electricity, with an emphasis on the distinction between water withdrawals and water consumption, and considering the complete lifetime cycles of water extraction for energy exploration, processing, and generation.
The quotation “Civilization is in a race between education and catastrophe” is attributed to the writer H. G. Wells (1866–1946). While often quoted, the actual source of the quotation seems elusive, but I feel that it is relevant here. However, in the context of climate change, as in many other contexts, ‘education’ is much more than about being informed. It is also about ‘education to be wary’ – wary of the easy narrative, the received wisdom, the manufactured dissent and the fact that nothing enhances self-justification as much as a bogeyman – whether an actual person or an assumed problem. Further, I would add ‘education to think carefully’, to question, to realise that you might be being manipulated, to realise how you are being positioned, to read widely, to gain as many views as possible, to be open and to think for yourself. H. G. Wells continued, “Let us learn the truth and spread it as far and wide as our circumstances allow. For the truth is the greatest weapon we have.”
Important challenges like climate change require transformative policy responses. According to a growing public policy literature, such transformative responses typically require complex policy packages that bundle various individual policy instruments to complement each other, compensate transition losers, and create positive synergies. Nevertheless, while adding new instruments to a package can increase policy effectiveness, it comes at a price: increased policy design complexity. Increased complexity potentially leads to fundamental public misperceptions that undermine policy legitimacy and feasibility. Here, I argue that complex policy packages affect public opinion through a compensation, policy perception, and design complexity mechanism. To test this argument, this study assesses if citizens evaluate proposals for isolated climate policies related to food and mobility behaviors differently to complex policy packages. Employing a novel two-stage conjoint-experimental approach with 9115 respondents from the USA and Germany, the study shows that policy packaging increases citizens’ perceived policy effectiveness to reduce climate pollutants, but also perceived restrictions on citizens’ lifestyles. Moreover, increased design complexity can lead citizens to pay special attention to salient costly parts of policy packages. However, increased design complexity does not fundamentally reverse preferences. Through packaging desired and undesired policy instruments, policymakers can increase public support for transformative climate policies.
Anthropogenic climate change and the necessary transformation of society to mitigate its consequences constitutes an unprecedented educational challenge. Responding to the climate emergency and to society’s awakening climate activism generates a complex situation for school leadership in particular. Here, we report findings from our research with climate activist students and teachers in Aotearoa New Zealand. We argue that school leadership plays a crucial role in enabling student and teacher agency and the development of effective Climate Change Education in schools. We utilise assemblage thinking, situating this within the new materialisms, to conceptualise schools and their leadership as dynamic assemblages, and we discuss teacher and student experiences as actors across such assemblages. We conclude that deterritorialisation and decoding of educational institutions and their leadership practices can promote and enable education to become a driver of the cultural transformation of society that the climate emergency mandates.
In this article framing the special issue on the global school strikes for climate, we ask: what if education is not the solution, but part of the system young people want to change? In conversation with school strikers and reflecting on the contributions to this issue, we argue that the strikes pose a reckoning for education. Five key themes emerge from this special issue: (1) students are striking because of the affective weight of climate injustice; (2) students learn through their participation in striking, in contrast to the often insufficient climate change education taught in schools; (3) young people are becoming climate change educators through their roles as strikers; (4) strikers are patronised through paternalistic structures (including schooling) that ostensibly exist to protect them; and therefore (5) we need to reimagine education. We then advance four propositions for education in response to young people’s modest demands for a liveable future: (1) young people are in and of the collapsing climate; (2) youth voices need to be taken seriously, without excusing adult and collective responsibilities; (3) multigenerational, more-than-human, intercultural collaborations must be practiced in education for climate justice; and (4) we must learn to navigate ontological uncertainty and attend to ethical complexity.
The Congo basin forests have vast conservation potential but because of their inaccessibility and periodic insecurity there is little formal protection or ecological research occurring there. Community-based conservation efforts in the unprotected forest corridor separating Kahuzi-Biega and Maiko National Parks in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo aim to protect a unique forest ecosystem and facilitate the development of ecological research. To support this process, we obtained baseline data on the occurrence of terrestrial mammals in the Nkuba Conservation Area by conducting camera-trap (2014–2018) and transect (2013–2018) surveys. From camera-trap images we also extracted diel activity patterns and estimated overlap in these patterns between selected pairs of species. We identified 29 mammal species weighing > 1 kg using camera traps and 22 species in transect surveys, with a total of 33 mammal species, of which seven are categorized as threatened on the IUCN Red List. Among this mammalian community, we recorded nocturnal and diurnal species with short core activity periods, and several cathemeral species with long activity periods, with various degrees of temporal separation of diel activity between species. The presence of threatened species, including the Critically Endangered Grauer's gorilla Gorilla beringei graueri, suggests that the Nkuba Conservation Area harbours a forest community that requires continuous monitoring, further research and investment in protection from the ongoing deforestation and resource exploitation occurring in the surrounding region.
Litter decomposition plays an important role in the carbon cycle and is affected by many factors in forest ecosystems. This study aimed to quantify the rhizosphere priming effect on litter decomposition in subtropical forest southwestern China. A litter decomposition experiment including control and trenching treatments was conducted using the litter bag method, and the litter decomposition rate was calculated by litter dry mass loss. Trenching did not change soil temperature, but increased the soil water content by 14.5%. In this study, the interaction of soil temperature and soil water content controlled the litter decomposition rate, and explained 87.4 and 85.5% of the variation in litter decomposition in the control and trenching treatments, respectively. Considering changes in soil environmental factors due to trenching, the litter decomposition rates were corrected by regression models. After correction, the litter decomposition rates of the control and trenching treatments were 32.47 ± 3.15 and 25.71 ± 2.72% year–1, respectively, in the 2-year period. Rhizosphere activity significantly primed litter decomposition by 26.3%. Our study suggested a priming effect of rhizosphere activity on litter decomposition in the subtropical forest. Combining previous interaction effect results, we estimated the contributions of total soil organic matter (SOM) decomposition, total litter decomposition, and root respiration to soil respiration in the subtropical forest, and our new method of estimating the components of soil respiration provided basic theory for SOM decomposition research.
As natural and anthropogenic forcings impel anticipated climate change, their effects on biodiversity and environmental sustainability are evident. A fundamental question that is often overlooked is: which changes in climate will cause the redistribution or extinction of threatened species? Here, we mapped and modelled the current and future geographical distributions of the four threatened medicinal plants – Aconitum heterophyllum Wall. ex Royle, Fritillaria cirrhosa D.Don, Meconopsis aculeata Royle and Rheum webbianum Royle – in Kashmir Himalaya using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modelling. Species occurrence records were collated from detailed field studies carried out between the years 2010 and 2020. Four general circulation models for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios were chosen for future range changes over periods around 2050 (average for 2041–2060) and 2070 (average of 2061–2080). Notable differences existed between species in their responses to predictive environmental variables of temperature and precipitation. Increase in the most suitable habitat, except for A. heterophyllum and R. webbianum, were evident across Himalayan Mountain regions, while the Pir Panjal mountain region exhibited a decrease for all four species under future climate change scenarios. This study exemplifies the idiosyncratic response of narrow-range plants to expected future climate change and highlights conservation implications.