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Corrélations investissement-épargne et mobilité internationaledes capitaux*

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  17 August 2016

Jean-Pierre Berdot ,
Gérard Kébabdjian  and
Jacques Léonard
Jean-Pierre Berdot
Affiliation:
Université de Poitiers
Gérard Kébabdjian
Affiliation:
Université de Paris VIII
Jacques Léonard
Affiliation:
Université de Poitiers
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Résumé

On admet généralement que la mobilité internationale serait devenue trèsforte à la suite de la libéralisation et de l'intégration financière desvingt dernières années. De façon surprenante, la plupart des travauxempiriques « à la Feldstein-Horioka » ne valident cette hypothèse. Unereconsidération de ces estimations conduit toutefois à des résultats neufs.Les tests, même classiques, confortent l'idée d'un accroissement à longterme de la mobilitéet la tendance s'est accentuée depuis le début desannées quatre-vingt. Tous les pays industrialisés, grands ou petits, sontconcernés par cette augmentation; la globalisation financière marquenéanmoins une frontière entre ces pays et les pays émergents pour lesquelsl'investissement demeure dépendant de l'épargne intérieure. Dans l'ensemble,la décorrélation entre investissement et épargne se manifeste par une plusgrande autonomie des flux de capitaux. La relation linéaire entreinvestissement et épargne pivote autour d'un point fixe représenté par letaux d'épargne mondial. Le positionnement des pays par rapport à ce pointfixe permet d'établir une typologie robuste qui remet en cause l'idée reçueselon laquelle tous les pays seraient égaux devant la globalisationfinancière.

Summary

Summary

According to conventional wisdom, international capital mobility hasincreased at an accelerating rate due to financial globalization for thelast twenty years. Surprisingly, the Feldstein-Horioka work and most ofsubsequent research fail to confirm this increase in capital mobility.However, when econometric results are reconsidered, new evidence appears andchallenges usual empirical findings. On the one hand, Feldstein-Horiokarelated regressions suggest that international mobility has actuallyincreased in the long run; on the other hand, the early 1980s exhibit anacceleration in this upward trend. It is the case for all of industrializedcountries, whatever their size. Nevertheless, for emerging countries savingand investment rates are still highly correlated. Taken as a whole, a lowerinvestment-saving correlation is related to higher independence ofinternational capital flows with respect to domestic savings. We find thatthe linear relationship between investment and saving rates turns around a“pivotal point” defined as the world saving rate. This criterion allows usto classify countries according to their respective situations. So, itappears that countries have not equally benefited from financial marketsliberalization.

Keywords

GlobalisationMouvements de capitauxIntégration financièreE44F3F4F21globalisationcapital flowsfinancial integrationE44F3F4F21

Information

Type
Research Article
Information
Recherches Économiques de Louvain/ Louvain Economic Review , Volume 69 , Issue 1 , 2003 , pp. 5 - 38
Copyright
Copyright © Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de recherches économiques et sociales 2003 

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Footnotes

**

Professeur à I'Université de Poitiers, membre du Centre de Recherche sur l'intégration Économique et Financière (CRIEF), Faculté de Sciences Économiques, 93 avenue du Recteur Pineau, 86022 Poitiers Cedex, e-mail:jean-pierre.berdot@univ-poitiers.fr

***

Professeur à I'Universite de Paris VIII, membre du Centre d'Études en Macroéconomie et Finance Internationale (CEMAFI), Université de Nice - Sofia Antipolis, 7 avenue Robert Schuman, 06050 Nice Cedex, e-mail:gkebabdjian@univ-paris8.fr

****

Professeur à I'Université de Poitiers, membre du Centre de Recherche sur l'intégration Économique et Financière (CRIEF), Faculté de Sciences Économiques, 93 avenue du Recteur Pineau, 86022 Poitiers Cedex, e-mail:jacques.leonard@univ-poitiers.fr

*

Les auteurs remercient leurs trois rapporteurs anonymes, et toutparticulièrement le dernier d'entre eux, pour leurs précieuxcommentaires et remarques constructives. L'entière responsabilité decet article leur incombe néanmoins. Version définitive:avril 2001.

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