We consider a robust optimal investment–reinsurance problem to minimize the goal-reaching probability that the value of the wealth process reaches a low barrier before a high goal for an ambiguity-averse insurer. The insurer invests its surplus in a constrained financial market, where the proportion of borrowed amount to the current wealth level is no more than a given constant, and short-selling is prohibited. We assume that the insurer purchases per-claim reinsurance to transfer its risk exposure to a reinsurer whose premium is computed according to the mean–variance premium principle. Using the stochastic control approach based on the Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation, we derive robust optimal investment–reinsurance strategies and the corresponding value functions. We conclude that the behavior of borrowing typically occurs with a lower wealth level. Finally, numerical examples are given to illustrate our results.

We propose a monotone approximation scheme for a class of fully nonlinear degenerate partial integro-differential equations which characterize nonlinear $\alpha$-stable Lévy processes under a sublinear expectation space with $\alpha\in(1,2)$. We further establish the error bounds for the monotone approximation scheme. This in turn yields an explicit Berry–Esseen bound and convergence rate for the $\alpha$-stable central limit theorem under sublinear expectation.

The embedding problem of Markov chains examines whether a stochastic matrix$\mathbf{P} $ can arise as the transition matrix from time 0 to time 1 of a continuous-time Markov chain. When the chain is homogeneous, it checks if $ \mathbf{P}=\exp{\mathbf{Q}}$ for a rate matrix $ \mathbf{Q}$ with zero row sums and non-negative off-diagonal elements, called a Markov generator. It is known that a Markov generator may not always exist or be unique. This paper addresses finding $ \mathbf{Q}$, assuming that the process has at most one jump per unit time interval, and focuses on the problem of aligning the conditional one-jump transition matrix from time 0 to time 1 with $ \mathbf{P}$. We derive a formula for this matrix in terms of $ \mathbf{Q}$ and establish that for any $ \mathbf{P}$ with non-zero diagonal entries, a unique $ \mathbf{Q}$, called the ${\unicode{x1D7D9}}$-generator, exists. We compare the ${\unicode{x1D7D9}}$-generator with the one-jump rate matrix from Jarrow, Lando, and Turnbull (1997), showing which is a better approximate Markov generator of $ \mathbf{P}$ in some practical cases.

We investigate some aspects of the problem of the estimation of birth distributions (BDs) in multi-type Galton–Watson trees (MGWs) with unobserved types. More precisely, we consider two-type MGWs called spinal-structured trees. This kind of tree is characterized by a spine of special individuals whose BD $\nu$ is different from the other individuals in the tree (called normal, and whose BD is denoted by $\mu$). In this work, we show that even in such a very structured two-type population, our ability to distinguish the two types and estimate $\mu$ and $\nu$ is constrained by a trade-off between the growth-rate of the population and the similarity of $\mu$ and $\nu$. Indeed, if the growth-rate is too large, large deviation events are likely to be observed in the sampling of the normal individuals, preventing us from distinguishing them from special ones. Roughly speaking, our approach succeeds if $r\lt \mathfrak{D}(\mu,\nu)$, where r is the exponential growth-rate of the population and $\mathfrak{D}$ is a divergence measuring the dissimilarity between $\mu$ and $\nu$.

We consider the following problem: the drift of the wealth process of two companies, modelled by a two-dimensional Brownian motion, is controllable such that the total drift adds up to a constant. The aim is to maximize the probability that both companies survive. We assume that the volatility of one company is small with respect to the other, and use methods from singular perturbation theory to construct a formal approximation of the value function. Moreover, we validate this formal result by explicitly constructing a strategy that provides a target functional, approximating the value function uniformly on the whole state space.

We study a signaling game between an employer and a potential employee, where the employee has private information regarding their production capacity. At the initial stage, the employee communicates a salary claim, after which the true production capacity is gradually revealed to the employer as the unknown drift of a Brownian motion representing the revenues generated by the employee. Subsequently, the employer has the possibility to choose a time to fire the employee in case the estimated production capacity falls short of the salary. In this setup, we use filtering and optimal stopping theory to derive an equilibrium in which the employee provides a randomized salary claim and the employer uses a threshold strategy in terms of the conditional probability for the high production capacity. The analysis is robust in the sense that various extensions of the basic model can be solved using the same methodology, including cases with positive firing costs, incomplete information about an individual’s own type, as well as an additional interview phase.

We revisit processes generated by iterated random functions driven by a stationary and ergodic sequence. Such a process is called strongly stable if a random initialization exists for which the process is stationary and ergodic, and for any other initialization the difference of the two processes converges to zero almost surely. Under some mild conditions on the corresponding recursive map, without any condition on the driving sequence we show the strong stability of iterations. Several applications are surveyed such as generalized autoregression and queuing. Furthermore, new results are deduced for Langevin-type iterations with dependent noise and for multitype branching processes.

We propose a novel and unified sampling scheme, called the accelerated group sequential sampling scheme, which incorporates four different types of sampling scheme: (i) the classic Anscombe–Chow–Robbins purely sequential sampling scheme; (ii) the accelerated sequential sampling scheme; (iii) the relatively new k-at-a-time group sequential sampling scheme; and (iv) the new k-at-a-time accelerated group sequential sampling scheme. The first-order and second-order properties of this unified sequential sampling scheme are fully investigated with two illustrations on minimum risk point estimation for the mean of a normal distribution and on bounded variance point estimation for the location parameter of a negative exponential distribution. We also provide extensive Monte Carlo simulation studies and real data analyses for each illustration.

We determine the order of the k-core in a large class of dense graph sequences. Let $G_n$ be a sequence of undirected, n-vertex graphs with edge weights $\{a^n_{i,j}\}_{i,j \in [n]}$ that converges to a graphon $W\colon[0,1]^2 \to [0,+\infty)$ in the cut metric. Keeping an edge (i,j) of $G_n$ with probability ${a^n_{i,j}}/{n}$ independently, we obtain a sequence of random graphs $G_n({1}/{n})$. Using a branching process and the theory of dense graph limits, under mild assumptions we obtain the order of the k-core of random graphs $G_n({1}/{n})$. Our result can also be used to obtain the threshold of appearance of a k-core of order n.

We introduce gradient flow aggregation, a random growth model. Given existing particles $\{x_1,\ldots,x_n\} \subset \mathbb{R}^2$, a new particle arrives from a random direction at $\infty$ and flows in direction of the vector field $\nabla E$ where $ E(x) = \sum_{i=1}^{n}{1}/{\|x-x_i\|^{\alpha}}$, $0 < \alpha < \infty$. The case $\alpha = 0$ refers to the logarithmic energy ${-}\sum\log\|x-x_i\|$. Particles stop once they are at distance 1 from one of the existing particles, at which point they are added to the set and remain fixed for all time. We prove, under a non-degeneracy assumption, a Beurling-type estimate which, via Kesten’s method, can be used to deduce sub-ballistic growth for $0 \leq \alpha < 1$, $\text{diam}(\{x_1,\ldots,x_n\}) \leq c_{\alpha} \cdot n^{({3 \alpha +1})/({2\alpha + 2})}$. This is optimal when $\alpha = 0$. The case $\alpha = 0$ leads to a ‘round’ full-dimensional tree. The larger the value of $\alpha$, the sparser the tree. Some instances of the higher-dimensional setting are also discussed.

We investigate the tail behavior of the first-passage time for Sinai’s random walk in a random environment. Our method relies on the connection between Sinai’s walk and branching processes with immigration in a random environment, and the analysis on some important quantities of these branching processes such as extinction time, maximum population, and total population.

In this paper we consider the workload of a storage system with the unconventional feature that the arrival times, rather than the interarrival times, are independent and identically distributed samples from a given distribution. We start by analyzing the ‘base model’ in which the arrival times are exponentially distributed, leading to a closed-form characterization of the queue’s workload at a given moment in time (i.e. in terms of Laplace–Stieltjes transforms), assuming the initial workload was 0. Then we consider four more general models, each of them having a specific additional feature: (a) the initial workload being allowed to have any arbitrary non-negative value, (b) an additional stream of Poisson arrivals, (c) phase-type arrival times, (d) balking customers. For all four variants the transform of the transient workload is identified in closed form.

The system signature is a useful tool for studying coherent systems. For a given coherent system, various methods have been proposed in the literature to compute its signature. However, when any system signature is given, the literature does not address how to construct the corresponding coherent system(s). In this article we propose an algorithm to address this research gap. This algorithm enables the validation of whether a provided probability vector qualifies as a signature. If it does, the algorithm proceeds to generate the corresponding coherent system(s). To illustrate the applicability of this algorithm, we consider all three and four-dimensional probability vectors, verify if they are signatures, and finally obtain 5 and 20 coherent systems, respectively, which coincides with the literature (Shaked and Suarez-Llorens 2003).

This paper studies a novel Brownian functional defined as the supremum of a weighted average of the running Brownian range and its running reversal from extrema on the unit interval. We derive the Laplace transform for the squared reciprocal of this functional, which leads to explicit moment expressions that are new to the literature. We show that the proposed Brownian functional can be used to estimate the spot volatility of financial returns based on high-frequency price observations.

A numerical method is proposed for a class of one-dimensional stochastic control problems with unbounded state space. This method solves an infinite-dimensional linear program, equivalent to the original formulation based on a stochastic differential equation, using a finite element approximation. The discretization scheme itself and the necessary assumptions are discussed, and a convergence argument for the method is presented. Its performance is illustrated by examples featuring long-term average and infinite horizon discounted costs, and additional optimization constraints.

We consider the constrained-degree percolation model in a random environment (CDPRE) on the square lattice. In this model, each vertex v has an independent random constraint $\kappa_v$ which takes the value $j\in \{0,1,2,3\}$ with probability $\rho_j$. The dynamics is as follows: at time $t=0$ all edges are closed; each edge e attempts to open at a random time $U(e)\sim \mathrm{U}(0,1]$, independently of all the other edges. It succeeds if at time U(e) both its end vertices have degrees strictly smaller than their respective constraints. We obtain exponential decay of the radius of the open cluster of the origin at all times when its expected size is finite. Since CDPRE is dominated by Bernoulli percolation, this result is meaningful only if the supremum of all values of t for which the expected size of the open cluster of the origin is finite is larger than $\frac12$. We prove this last fact by showing a sharp phase transition for an intermediate model.

Early investigation of Pólya urns considered drawing balls one at a time. In the last two decades, several authors have considered multiple drawing in each step, but mostly for schemes involving two colors. In this manuscript, we consider multiple drawing from urns of balls of multiple colors, formulating asymptotic theory for specific urn classes and addressing more applications. The class we consider is affine and tenable, built around a ‘core’ square matrix. We examine cases where the urn is irreducible and demonstrate its relationship to matrix irreducibility for its core matrix, with examples provided. An index for the drawing schema is derived from the eigenvalues of the core. We identify three regimes: small, critical, and large index. In the small-index regime, we find an asymptotic Gaussian law. In the critical-index regime, we also find an asymptotic Gaussian law, albeit with a difference in the scale factor, which involves logarithmic terms. In both of these regimes, we have explicit forms for the structure of the mean and the covariance matrix of the composition vector (both exact and asymptotic). In all three regimes we have strong laws.

We are interested in the law of the first passage time of an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process to time-varying thresholds. We show that this problem is connected to the laws of the first passage time of the process to members of a two-parameter family of functional transformations of a time-varying boundary. For specific values of the parameters, these transformations appear in a realisation of a standard Ornstein–Uhlenbeck bridge. We provide three different proofs of this connection. The first is based on a similar result for Brownian motion, the second uses a generalisation of the so-called Gauss–Markov processes, and the third relies on the Lie group symmetry method. We investigate the properties of these transformations and study the algebraic and analytical properties of an involution operator which is used in constructing them. We also show that these transformations map the space of solutions of Sturm–Liouville equations into the space of solutions of the associated nonlinear ordinary differential equations. Lastly, we interpret our results through the method of images and give new examples of curves with explicit first passage time densities.

The problem of reservation in a large distributed system is analyzed via a new mathematical model. The target application is car-sharing systems. This model is motivated by the large station-based car-sharing system in France called Autolib’. This system can be described as a closed stochastic network where the nodes are the stations and the customers are the cars. The user can reserve a car and a parking space. We study the evolution of the system when the reservation of parking spaces and cars is effective for all users. The asymptotic behavior of the underlying stochastic network is given when the number N of stations and the fleet size M increase at the same rate. The analysis involves a Markov process on a state space with dimension of order $N^2$. It is quite remarkable that the state process describing the evolution of the stations, whose dimension is of order N, converges in distribution, although not Markov, to a non-homogeneous Markov process. We prove this mean-field convergence. We also prove, using combinatorial arguments, that the mean-field limit has a unique equilibrium measure when the time between reserving and picking up the car is sufficiently small. This result extends the case where only the parking space can be reserved.

We consider linear-fractional branching processes (one-type and two-type) with immigration in varying environments. For $n\ge0$, let $Z_n$ count the number of individuals of the nth generation, which excludes the immigrant who enters the system at time n. We call n a regeneration time if $Z_n=0$. For both the one-type and two-type cases, we give criteria for the finiteness or infiniteness of the number of regeneration times. We then construct some concrete examples to exhibit the strange phenomena caused by the so-called varying environments. For example, it may happen that the process is extinct, but there are only finitely many regeneration times. We also study the asymptotics of the number of regeneration times of the model in the example.