Fuelled by the scalding heat of Vietnam's “blazing furnace” (đốt lò) anti-corruption campaign, the year 2023 roared both in and out. In January, an investigation into bribery and overcharging for Covid-19 test kits and evacuation flights led to the dismissal of three prominent Vietnamese technocrats, including then president Nguyen Xuan Phuc. In December, an ongoing investigation into Truong My Lan—chairwoman of the Van Thinh Phat (VTP) group and one of Vietnam's highest-profile and richest tycoons—revealed a staggering graft scheme, estimated to encompass over US$44 billion and involving dozens of accomplices in the business sector, bureaucracy and government. The implications of the “blazing furnace”, however, are far greater than the counting of punished officials and vast sums of corruption money. The effort to root out corruption at the core of the Vietnamese regime is fundamentally altering the country's political economy. The changes that are unfolding have the potential to dramatically influence Vietnam's economic and political development trajectory in both positive and negative ways.

At the elite level, political analysts have observed that the Vietnamese leadership is more consolidated under the general secretary of the Vietnamese Communist Party (VCP), Nguyen Phu Trong, than at any time since the dawn of the Renovation (Đổi mới) era in 1986. A key feature of Vietnam's renovation-era polity has been the implicit division of powers between the country's top leaders (general secretary, prime minister, president and national assembly speaker). The distribution of authority among these “four pillars” enabled greater diversity of opinions in the collective leadership. This structure generated veto points that facilitated thoughtful deliberation and slowed policy change. It also incentivized the redistribution of resources from regions benefitting from globalization to the more disadvantaged ones.

The downstream effects of elite consolidation are also tangible, as the press, social media and civil society, especially environmental NGOs, have come under greater scrutiny and constraints, leading to what some analysts have called a “chilling effect” on public discourse. This effect was amplified on 15 November when Lưu Binh Nhuong, deputy head of the National Assembly Commission for Public Petitions, a high-profile commentator on public affairs, was arrested on confusing charges of embezzlement. At the bureaucratic level, fears about being targeted by the “blazing furnace” have slowed government procurement as both officials and businesses remain uncertain of the new rules of engagement. Numerous provinces were slow to spend public money on official projects, including the country's economic capital, Ho Chi Minh City, which had only spent twenty-three per cent of its planned budget by the year's midpoint.

The difficulties are likely to remain until new systems are put in place that give local officials confidence that procurement can take place in a lawful and transparent manner. In terms of foreign policy, the campaign provided an important backdrop in shaping the terms of Vietnam's major foreign policy achievements, including joining the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) and establishing the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with the United States.