Published online by Cambridge University Press: 03 July 2025
Like many other Southeast Asian countries, Indonesia has been increasingly worried about the state of great power relations and the direction it may take in the region. The country's leaders have raised the issue more frequently in recent years. They are concerned that the intensification of great power rivalry would inevitably threaten the stability and prosperity of Southeast Asia. For example, in his speech at the opening of the 43rd ASEAN Summit in September 2023 in Jakarta, President Joko Widodo (Jokowi) warned great powers “not to turn our ASEAN ship into an arena for rivalry that is destructive”. A year earlier, as Indonesia started its presidency of the G-20, President Jokowi also warned that “it is not the time for rivalry, it is not the time to create a new tension”. Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi often expresses similar messages of concern about the intensification of US-China rivalry and warns the two great powers that “we don't want to get trapped by this rivalry”.
The focus of concern is clearly on the state of the relationship between the United States and China. For Indonesia, the preferred default position has always been described as tidak memihak (not taking sides). That position is seen as the natural manifestation of the principle of bebas (free/independent) in the twin principles of bebas-aktif (free and active) of Indonesia's foreign policy. Indonesia is still committed to the vision of a Southeast Asia that is free from great power rivalry. But as the rivalry has intensified over the last few years, Indonesia finds itself in a more challenging strategic environment. Indeed, navigating the US-China rivalry whilst maintaining a close and equidistant relationship with each of them has now become a difficult task for Indonesia's foreign policy. As Southeast Asia becomes the arena for the competition for influence between the two great powers, Jakarta sees it as crucial to ensure that Indonesia and the region remain bebas. President Jokowi, on more than one occasion, warned ASEAN “not to be a proxy for any great power”.
In order to stay bebas, Indonesia must be aktif. In order to pursue the twin imperatives of bebas and aktif, Indonesia cannot just sit on the fence and hope the challenge will simply go away. It must formulate an active and creative response to that challenge. This essay examines Indonesia's strategic concerns and predicaments emanating from the great power rivalry, explains Indonesia's response to the challenge and discusses some changes that Indonesia needs to consider if it wants to cope with the intensification of great power rivalry in Southeast Asia in an active way. It is imperative, however, to also understand that the expression of Indonesia's foreign policy towards great powers will continue to be affected and tempered by its domestic politics and national economic interests.
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