The Russian spirit when analyzed gives an answer to the second question, which takes the form of two questions: Will Russia make a separate peace, and is the German influence strong?

The Russian spirit is a little incoherent. To define it is difficult, just as it is difficult to define the power of Russia's sleeping resources. It is, like all things in Russia, a thing of contradiction. But Russia's spirit realizes Russia's resources, and Russia's own subconscious mind sees Russia more clearly than the outer world can see her. “For instance, when the Central Powers last fall drove Russia's army out of a vast territory the outer world felt that Russia had met a defeat which had shaken the Russian Empire,” said Paul Miliukov to me. “The empire was not shaken. There was depression. Losses had been great. But this war is not the Russo-Japanese War. The people in the last war were unmoved; the war was far away in Russia's back yard. This war is another affair; it is on the front porch.”

The depression had a rebound; Russia's spirit surged back. And a part of its surging back is due to the fact that the Russian Empire is so great in extent, so rich in natural resources, and so well provided with endless hordes of men able to bear arms that it is like a great resilient lump. It may yield to pressure, as it yielded to Napoleon and as it yielded in 1915 to the Austro-German advance which swallowed Warsaw. But the lump retains its resiliency; it has a character of persistent expulsion. It may not be difficult to stick a thumb into Russia, but it is tiresome trying to keep it there. The lump is irritating with its resiliency. It is absurdly complacent!

For the outsider to believe that Russia must be depressed is natural. The financial situation is not pleasant. The ruble's value has slid down from about 50 cents to less than 30 cents. No one sees any metal money. The Government printing presses turn out postage stamps to provide the country with small change; these stamps do not stick to the fingers, for there is no mucilage on their backs.