POLITICS, ECONOMICS AND SECURITY: NEGATIVE AND POSITIVE SCENARIOS

This book has argued that for political, economic and geostrategic reasons, Okinawa is in danger of becoming a flashpoint for great power conflict. This has been argued from the perspective of its turbulent history, as well as its precarious present and uncertain future. The prefecture's complex domestic politics and society, tensions between local and mainland economic vested interests – along with their impact upon fragile ecosystems – and the islands’ challenging international geomilitary position all compound this designation as a probable convergence point for major interstate violence. In light of the evidence presented thus far, this final chapter brings together the key elements discussed above and sets out a series of plausible scenarios for each of their core spheres of interaction. The aim of this endeavour is to shine a light on the primary obstacles to progress as well as illuminating credible pathways to more positive outcomes in each case. Within this context, the most significant variables are consistently identified as leading state and non-state political actors, economic incentives and disincentives, and pivotal shifts in the broader international geostrategic landscape. After highlighting the depth and breadth of the challenge at hand in each case, an alternative scenario is then put forward as a form of recommendation for enabling dialogue towards the creation of mechanisms through which constructive change and policy innovation might be realized. This begins from the Okinawan perspective by sketching negative and positive scenarios that address the seemingly irreconcilable tensions between long-standing domestic political adversaries driving discord on the islands.

LONG-STANDING LOCALIZED RIVALRY: DANGERS OF DIVIDED RULE

We have duly highlighted the challenges posed by the complex nature of Okinawa's domestic politics and how this might contribute towards the islands becoming a flashpoint for more wide-reaching conflict. Similarly, in some of the more compelling negative analyses put forward by analysts and political actors, localized political divisions become a key factor in leading the prefecture, or at least certain municipalities within it, towards in-fighting and interparty discord that threatens the cohesion of any potential Okinawa-wide unity.