In this chapter I address the intersection of geostrategic security and politico-economic interests in the region by re-examining Okinawa as the “keystone of the Pacific” and what this role means. More specifically, in the context of the contemporary US-led Indo-Pacific security architecture, the discussion explains the strategic significance of Okinawa to the US–Japan alliance and how it is increasingly playing host to the intensified interoperability of American and Japanese forces throughout the Southwest Island Chain. This includes an assessment of new JSDF facilities on Okinawa as well as the security status quo of the Senkaku Islands. It concludes with the most likely projections for how the tense situation might be escalated or deescalated, as well as how these relate to tensions over the South China Sea and Taiwan Straits, as China continues to increase its security capabilities. In short, the chapter argues that unless significant changes are made or occur, Okinawa is highly likely to become a regional flashpoint. In this regard, it reflects the broader theme of the book in illustrating how a set of complex variables intersecting the state, market and society of the prefecture are inextricably linked to surrounding great power rivalries. Moreover, an examination of the available evidence suggests that these relationships are unstable, making conflict all the more likely as the centre of power transitions from the US and its allies towards China.

In contrast, however, even when these structural dynamics constrain the range of possible policy actions, which in this case appear to be pushing Okinawa towards being a focal point for military action, cooperative security initiatives aimed at averting direct military conflict may be possible. In that regard, the argument is made that these need to be informed by credible ideational concepts that contain sufficient mutual compatibility between a range of stakeholders. In order to evidence the above, a number of leading IR theories are simplified and applied to the Okinawan case study. This involves summarizing their key ideas, recapitulating how they are used to understand unfolding situations on the ground and sea, and combining their most pertinent insights to gain a clearer picture. By doing so, I unpack the state and non-state drivers of structural power, explain how these result in specific forms of policy-making and illustrate the key ideational elements that inform those policy-makers’ decision-making.