Introduction

Indian and Chinese ties with the Gulf countries are akin to an incongruent triangle – incongruent, yes, but a triangle nevertheless. Both are great civilisations with different post-colonial development models that together account for more than a third of the world’s population. Both have not only consolidated their place in Asia, but are also making their presence felt on the global stage. But, the rise of ‘Chindia’ (China and India) – “which together accounted for half the global economy three centuries ago, but declined to less than one fifth, may emerge once again, perhaps within 50 years, as two of the three largest economies in the world, after the United States” – brings to the table a set of uncertainties too.

As the two countries attempt to balance their demand-supply chain of energy and raw materials to feed their expanding economies – as seen in both wooing Africa, something that could become more apparent in their relations with the energy-rich Gulf countries in the future – and their naval presence expands to protect their supply routes in the Indian Ocean in future, the discourse on a potential Indo-Sino rivalry in the Gulf region is drawing attention.

This apprehension comes in the midst of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries recognising the significance of Asia as an economic ally and adopting a ‘Look East’ policy during the first decade of the 21st century, which is also referred to as a period of ‘rediscovery’ of Gulf-Asia ties. A combination of economic factors and the fallout of 9/11 – especially Western suspicion about the region and its financial dealings – will continue to make the GCC countries approach the East as their preferred partner.

The ‘Look East’ policy in the economic realm also comes at a time of regional introspection in the political arena, which is likely to influence the long-term political economy of the GCC countries and shape international relations in the coming decades. This is particularly relevant against the backdrop of China and India bringing to the table another important dynamic – their ties with Iran and Israel, which could be used positively to reduce regional tension.

In meeting all these economic, political and strategic objectives, Chindia competition is inevitable. Equally, however, there is nothing stopping the two countries from cooperating and avoiding confrontation. Their cooperative relationship has significant implications not only for the future of the two countries, but also for the Gulf region, especially in the security domain.