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15 - Will Obama’s Myanmar Legacy Survive under Trump?: (Nikkei Asian Review, 3 December 2016)

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  03 July 2025

Andrew Selth
Affiliation:
Griffith University, Queensland
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Summary

Barack Obama's policy of “pragmatic engagement” acknowledged momentous changes in Myanmar and broke decades of unproductive stalemate between it and the US. The president even made a visit to Myanmar. The newlyelected Donald Trump, however, showed no interest in, let alone knowledge of, Myanmar. More to the point, his disdain for human rights and ambiguous attitude towards China and North Korea made it unlikely that he would try to capitalise on Obama's legacy and further promote US-Myanmar relations.

Who Said It: Trump or Wirathu?

Aung San Suu Kyi was quick to congratulate US president-elect Donald Trump on his recent victory, but there is no doubt that Myanmar's state counsellor, her government and probably most of the country would have preferred to see Hillary Clinton installed in the White House next year.

Not only was Clinton a driving force behind Barack Obama's successful and far-sighted policy of “pragmatic engagement” with Myanmar, but she was familiar with the country and had established a personal rapport with Aung San Suu Kyi. Under a Clinton administration, Myanmar would be treated very sympathetically by the US, which would have been appreciated by the state counsellor and her fledgling National League for Democracy (NLD) government as they struggle to cope with Myanmar's modernisation and democratisation.

Naypyidaw has other good reasons to be grateful to the Obama administration, and Clinton in particular. During Suu Kyi's visit to Washington in September, for example, it was announced that economic sanctions against Myanmar would be lifted, in order to unleash the country's “enormous potential”. Earlier, Obama had notified the US Congress that he would be reinstating preferential tariffs for Myanmar under the Generalised System of Preferences (GSP), which provides duty-free access for goods from poor and developing countries.

The future of the bilateral relationship under a Trump presidency is much more difficult to predict. Specific policies are either unknown, or the subject of inconsistent statements. Some positions taken by the presidentelect during his campaign have already been subject to unexpected reversals. A number of key executive appointments have yet to be made. Even so, it is possible to speculate about some Myanmar-related issues that are bound to arise after Trump takes office in January.

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Type
Chapter
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A Myanmar Miscellany
Selected Articles, 2007-2023
, pp. 82 - 86
Publisher: ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute
Print publication year: 2024

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