Published online by Cambridge University Press: 03 July 2025
After Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD formed government in 2016, some members of the activist community and sundry conspiracy theorists expressed fears that the generals were setting up the new administration to fail, so that they had an excuse to take back direct power. This defied logic, given the fact that it was the armed forces leadership that had permitted the transition to a more democratic form of government in the first place, and stood to gain considerably from its success.
Myanmar has always encouraged conspiracy theories. Most have proven fanciful, but there is one currently circulating that, given its potential implications, is worth examining. It argues that the leaders of the country's armed forces, or Tatmadaw, have a secret plan to bring down Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD) government and install a new military regime.
This theory was given fresh life recently by media coverage of the first anniversary of the NLD taking office in March 2016 and the appointment shortly afterwards of Suu Kyi as Myanmar's State Counsellor and de facto leader. Both milestones prompted a spate of reviews which, almost without exception, expressed disappointment with the NLD's first year in power. Suu Kyi herself came in for strong criticism, particularly from foreign observers upset by her refusal to intervene on behalf of the mostly stateless Muslim Rohingya population based mainly in the country's western Rakhine State.
Following such reviews, Suu Kyi's supporters and apologists for her government leapt to their defence, arguing that it was too early to judge the new administration. They pointed to the complex problems the NLD inherited last year, some of which date back to colonial days. Some commentators sought to deflect criticism from Suu Kyi to the armed forces, which they saw as the root cause of all her problems.
A few went even further, claiming that in various ways the Tatmadaw had deliberately sabotaged Suu Kyi's government. They suggested that this was always the generals’ plan. In the view of these pundits, ever since the NLD took office the armed forces had played a spoiling role, both to deny the civilian government a chance to establish itself, and to persuade Myanmar's people that only a strong military regime could deliver the sweeping changes they desired.
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