On taking office in 2011, President Thein Sein frankly acknowledged many of Myanmar's problems and announced that he planned to introduce a wideranging reform program. This surprised many who followed developments in the country and gave rise to a vigorous debate about his sincerity, and possible motives. Hopes were high that these steps heralded a new and more relaxed approach to politics in Myanmar. However, there were many pessimists who, based on the country's recent past, were reluctant to give the new quasi-civilian government the benefit of the doubt.

Strategic analysts who studied the Soviet Union during the 1980s can still recall the excitement and intellectual challenge of trying to interpret developments as Mikhail Gorbachev first introduced his policy of perestroika (restructuring), and followed it two years later with glasnost (openness).

As is now well known, there were some diehard Cold Warriors in official and academic circles who steadfastly refused to believe that a creature of the Communist Party, who had enjoyed the patronage of figures like KGB chief Yuri Andropov and risen to the rank of General Secretary, would ever challenge the system that nurtured him.

Then there were those experts who, on the basis of a careful analysis of the objective realities, were prepared to give Gorbachev the benefit of the doubt and accept that he was trying to introduce a range of genuine reforms, albeit for his own purposes. Few observers, however, went so far as to predict the downfall of the entire Soviet power structure.

It is useful to keep that period in mind when looking at developments in Myanmar, also known as Burma, since the inauguration of a hybrid civilian-military government this January.

President Thein Sein, a former army general widely believed to have been hand-picked by strongman Senior General Than Shwe, has made several public statements and promised a number of changes that appear to herald a more open-minded and conciliatory approach to government.

There is no question that the armed forces intend to remain firmly in control of Myanmar, but there now appears to be the possibility of greater personal freedoms, rational economic policies and a more relaxed attitude towards the development of civil society.