As the civil war in Myanmar reached its two-and-a-half-year mark, it became increasingly difficult to predict the final outcome. There was a range of factors that pointed to a possible victory for the opposition movement and a range of factors that argued equally strongly against such a result. Time was clearly a factor, but that seemed to be on the side of the junta. The international community continued to watch and wait on the sidelines, reluctant to commit beyond strong rhetoric and largely symbolic gestures.

When Charles Dickens wrote these words in 1859, he was thinking of the French Revolution, but they can also be applied to the civil war in Myanmar—considered by some observers to be another revolution. For the conflict there gives rise to feelings of both hope and despair. To many, the Burmese people have everything before them, but there are others who look at recent and likely future developments and are much less optimistic.

The hopeful signs have been widely publicised and are easily identified.

The nationwide civil disobedience movement that arose spontaneously after the military coup of 1 February 2021 has managed to survive the junta's brutal campaign against it. The opposition movement has created a shadow National Unity Government (NUG), which consists of 17 ministries and numerous other bodies, including at least four intelligence agencies and eight diplomatic missions overseas.

The NUG has announced a range of policies that seem aimed at correcting the social inequities seen under past military—and quasidemocratic— administrations. For example, it has declared that, under a new federal government, the Muslim Rohingyas will no longer be denied citizenship, the armed forces will be under civilian control, and greater autonomy will be granted to the ethnic minorities that make up 40 per cent of the country's population.