It had long been predicted by conservative commentators that, under Aung San Suu Kyi, Myanmar's foreign policy would take on a distinct Western orientation. That was never going to happen. Despite her close links with the West and her natural inclinations to lean that way, Aung San Suu Kyi and those advising her knew that Myanmar's national interests remained in being non-aligned and encouraging good relations with all countries. This stance also recognised Myanmar's modest ability to influence the region's strategic environment.

Conservative pundits have long predicted that, under any administration led by Aung San Suu Kyi, the country's foreign policy would lurch towards the West, increasing bilateral tensions with China and making Naypyidaw an important player in the strategic competition between Washington and Beijing. That will not happen, but Myanmar's current non-aligned stance will undergo minor adjustments.

Aung San Suu Kyi—who is tipped to head up the foreign ministry in the new Cabinet—has always been on good terms with the West, which for decades supported her struggle for democracy and human rights in Myanmar. Through her hand-picked president, she will doubtless consolidate these links, but she knows that Myanmar's long-term interests lie in maintaining an even-handed approach to all foreign countries, including its two most powerful neighbours.

Also, despite the advent of a democratically elected government, Myanmar's armed forces retain considerable influence. The generals would not support any change in foreign policy that could threaten Myanmar's unity, stability or sovereignty. They know that these three “national causes” are best served by firm but friendly relations with both regional neighbours and the great powers.

After decades of isolating and punishing the former military regime, the United States is keen to restore bilateral relations with Myanmar. Given its critical geostrategic position and membership of ASEAN, it is also a factor in Washington's “tilt” towards Asia. Claims that the US plans to use Myanmar to “contain” China, however, lack credibility. In any case, such a provocative policy would be rejected by the new government.