Since the coup, there have been numerous news stories about the “defection” of men and women from the Tatmadaw and Myanmar Police Force, to the extent that some observers have forecast the eventual collapse of the state's coercive apparatus. Such stories need to be treated with caution. Even allowing for a degree of exaggeration, however, the rate of separations from the uniformed services has been unprecedented, raising questions not only about their continued viability, but possibly the survival of the military regime itself.

When Myanmar's generals seized power on 1 February 2021, sparking an immediate and massive public reaction, it soon became clear the coup would severely test the cohesion and loyalty of the country's security forces. This was a critical issue as, lacking any popular mandate, the junta depended entirely on coercion and intimidation to enforce its will over the civilian population. Nine months later, it is worth looking at this subject again, for three reasons.

One reason is the continued opposition to the military regime, including from a wide variety of armed groups. Another is the increasing trickle of defections from the armed forces (or Tatmadaw) and Myanmar Police Force (MPF) to the resistance movement. The third reason is a recent report that a senior army officer in a critical command position was arrested for planning to defect to one of the country's ethnic armed organisations (EAO).

As always, developments in Myanmar are difficult to determine with any confidence. However, some trends are apparent, raising questions about the future of the junta, which now calls itself a “caretaker government”.

It has been claimed that at least 3000 members of the security forces have defected to the so-called civil disobedience movement (CDM), either by joining the loosely-organised People's Defence Force (PDF) or simply by abandoning their posts. This number reportedly includes more than 1,000 members of the MPF and about two dozen members of the country's Fire Department (which is sometimes counted as part of the country's “Defence Services”).