As happened after the abortive pro-democracy uprising in 1988, the analysts, activists and others commenting on the 2021 coup soon divided into two broad camps. On the one side were those keen to condemn the junta and promote the most positive story about the opposition movement. On the other side were more dispassionate observers who tried to provide objective, evidence-based assessments, regardless of their political impact. For those members of the public unfamiliar with the situation in Myanmar, it was sometimes difficult to know which stories to believe.

It was a year ago tomorrow that Myanmar's armed forces seized power after rejecting the results of a mostly free and fair general election. Since then, there has been a dramatic decline in all the standard political, economic and social indicators. Criminal activity and COVID-19 cases aside, the only statistics that have gone up are those recording the number of people killed, wounded or displaced in the bitter civil war that is now raging across the country.

Given the dearth of reliable information about Myanmar, and the strong emotions aroused by the terrible events of 2021, objective, evidence-based analyses of the crisis are difficult. Some broad observations are possible, but opinions vary widely on precisely what has happened, what it all means and what is in store for the country in 2022. As in the past, notably after the 1988 pro-democracy uprising, the public commentary on Myanmar is deeply divided.

Broadly speaking, those commentators, popular pundits and activists writing about Myanmar, mainly for the news media, but also for online publications and social media platforms, fall into two schools. For the sake of argument (and setting aside the many qualifications that immediately spring to mind), they can be called the idealists and the realists or, more prosaically, the optimists and the pessimists.

The two schools share some similarities. Both have described in graphic terms the dreadful state of affairs inside Myanmar. The human rights abuses of the armed forces (or Tatmadaw) have dominated the headlines, but as 2021 progressed Myanmar's economy collapsed, essential services failed, people fell below the poverty line, food and medicines became harder to find and the pandemic spread. Over 400,000 people have been internally displaced since the coup, and about 32,000 refugees have fled to Thailand and India.