In March 2023, the London-based Royal Institute of International Affairs (also known as Chatham House) published a report about construction activity on Myanmar's Great Coco Island, in the Andaman Sea. As occurred back in the 1990s and early 2000s, these developments resulted in a rash of highly speculative and often fanciful news stories, once again suggesting (and again without any hard evidence) that China was secretly using the island to extend its reach into the Indian Ocean and spy on India.

On 31 March, Chatham House published a report titled “Is Myanmar Building a Spy Base on Great Coco Island?”. The tone of the report was measured and its conclusions sensible but, predictably perhaps, it has since given rise to a rash of speculative and tendentious articles about a supposed Chinese military facility on a remote island in the Andaman Sea.

It is worth looking at the history of this story, if only to provide some context and inject a little balance into the public debate.

Back in 1992, an article “Government Said Helping to Build Naval Base in Burma” published by the Kyodo News Agency claimed that China was building a “radar facility” on Myanmar's Great Coco Island, just north of India's Andaman and Nicobar group. This item caught the attention of other journalists and commentators, who published a series of increasingly alarmist stories in the mainstream press. As they tried to outdo each other, the narrative became ever more bizarre.

Without citing any evidence, the authors of these articles referred to antennae farms, radomes, giant telescopes and other specialised intelligence collection equipment. The small radar installed to service the airfield on the island was soon being described as a Chinese signals intelligence (SIGINT) station that could eavesdrop on Indian naval traffic, and an electronic listening post that could monitor Indian missile launches. It was also supposed to be able to intercept deep sea communications from Indian submarines.