No one knows exactly how many people have been in Myanmar's armed forces, despite the different figures that have been published from time to time, and are thrown around in the news media and in the literature. Even well-informed academic and official observers, some with access to privileged information, have confessed their ignorance on this matter. In Donald Rumsfeldt's memorable terms, it was a classic “known unknown”. In any case, as this article attempted to make clear, numbers alone cannot give analysts a true understanding of the Tatmadaw's operational capabilities.

With nationwide elections due to be held in Burma on 7 November, observers are looking more closely at the military government's coercive apparatus, in particular the strength of its armed forces (or Tatmadaw). For they are likely to be crucial factors in the planned transition to what the regime is calling a “genuine multi-party discipline-flourishing democracy”.

Studying these matters is not easy. Almost all statistics cited in connection with Burma are suspect, few more so than those claiming to give the size of the country's armed forces.

Ever since the generals took back direct political power in 1988, and launched an ambitious military expansion and modernisation program, strategic analysts and other observers have been trying to determine how many Burmese men and women are in uniform. Numerous estimates have been put forward, but none can be considered definitive.

Most Burma watchers acknowledge that over the past 20 years the Tatmadaw has grown dramatically, from a baseline of around 200,000. According to one Burmese academic, who appears to have had access to official records, in 1988 the army numbered 184,029, the navy 8,065 and the air force 6,587.

In 1995, the military government announced a “war establishment” of 500,000. This formal goal was later revised to 600,000. This reportedly includes 23,000 in the air force and 22,000 in the navy. But these figures are purely notional, and are clearly well above the Tatmadaw's current “implemented strength”—although in 1999 one Thai newspaper claimed that there were 620,000 in Burma's armed forces.

By 2002, it was widely accepted that the Tatmadaw had at least doubled in size, to around 400,000. This figure was thought to consist of about 370,000 in the army, 16,000 in the navy and 15,000 in the air force.