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2 - Much a Duterte about Nothing: Continuity, Complacency, and Crisis in the Philippine Economy (2016–23)

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  03 July 2025

Aries Arugay
Affiliation:
ISEAS - Yusof Ishak Institute
Jean Encinas-Franco
Affiliation:
University of the Philippines
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Summary

In 2016, President Rodrigo Duterte inherited an economy with years of steady growth, low inflation, a lower debt burden, an influx of investments, and robust consumer and business confidence. In some ways, the Duterte administration (2016–22) kept that momentum. But this period also saw the reversal of some of these beneficial macroeconomic outcomes, as evidenced by slowing growth, a spell of high inflation, the steady decline of foreign direct investments, and the deep recession wrought by the pandemic (exacerbated by Duterte's inept pandemic response). The subsequent Marcos Jr. administration will have to contend with the deep economic scars left by the pandemic. But early signals suggest that Marcos Jr. is more interested in efforts to rehabilitate his family's image and rehash old programmes and policies of the late dictator, Marcos Sr.

Keywords: Philippine economy, economic policies, COVID-19 pandemic

The economic environment that prevailed during the Rodrigo Duterte administration (2016–22)—and extended into the early part of the succeeding Ferdinand Marcos Jr. administration—is largely the byproduct of the cumulative economic reforms and momentum spurred by previous administrations, notably the Benigno Aquino III administration (2010–16). Based on all major macroeconomic indicators, Aquino III left a legacy of stability and growth. From 2010 to 2015, annual gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an average rate of 6.26 per cent—the highest average growth in a post-war administration since the time of former president Ramon Magsaysay. Meanwhile, inflation averaged 3.1 per cent, the lowest since the administration of Carlos P. Garcia. The unemployment rate dropped from 8 per cent before Aquino III took office to 6.1 per cent right before he stepped down.

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Type
Chapter
Information
Games, Changes, and Fears
The Philippines from Duterte to Marcos Jr
, pp. 33 - 58
Publisher: ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute
Print publication year: 2024

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