A Synthetic Control Approach
from Part II - Political and Economic Implications of China’s WTO Membership
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 14 September 2023
This chapter compares the trajectory of China’s real GDP per capita before and after WTO accession with the trajectory of a weighted combination of similar economies, using weights determined endogenously by data. Synthetic China A is constructed to provide the counterfactual of what would have happened to China’s economy in the absence of WTO accession, while Synthetic China B is used to reveal whether China’s post-WTO growth is unusual. We find that WTO entry has a positive effect on China’s growth. Compared to other economies with similar WTO accession dates, the economic growth of China was average within five years of WTO accession, but became exceptional within ten years of accession.
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