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3 - Assessing the Impact of WTO Accession on China’s Economic Growth

A Synthetic Control Approach

from Part II - Political and Economic Implications of China’s WTO Membership

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 September 2023

Henry Gao
Affiliation:
Singapore Management University
Damian Raess
Affiliation:
University of Bern
Ka Zeng
Affiliation:
University of Arkansas
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Summary

This chapter compares the trajectory of China’s real GDP per capita before and after WTO accession with the trajectory of a weighted combination of similar economies, using weights determined endogenously by data. Synthetic China A is constructed to provide the counterfactual of what would have happened to China’s economy in the absence of WTO accession, while Synthetic China B is used to reveal whether China’s post-WTO growth is unusual. We find that WTO entry has a positive effect on China’s growth. Compared to other economies with similar WTO accession dates, the economic growth of China was average within five years of WTO accession, but became exceptional within ten years of accession.

Information

Type
Chapter
Information
China and the WTO
A Twenty-Year Assessment
, pp. 73 - 88
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2023
Creative Commons
Creative Common License - CCCreative Common License - BYCreative Common License - NC
This content is Open Access and distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence CC-BY-NC 4.0 https://creativecommons.org/cclicenses/

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