As the political, economic, and strategic balances in the region have shifted dramatically since the Arab uprisings began in 2011, Iraq's geopolitical matrix is beset by a tangle of regional and extra-regional actors and their interests. Since December 2017, when the Iraqi government declared victory over the Islamic State, Iran has emerged as a significant player, wielding enormous influence over the country's internal and external affairs. Iran's involvement through armed militias has exacerbated Iraq's already precarious sectarian balances. The return of many Iraqi families from Syria to Mosul, suspected of having ties to Islamic State groups, has sparked fears of renewed violence in the country. The economic crisis in Iraq, combined with the country's already inadequate infrastructure and governance, as well as rampant corruption, has led to a situation characterised by multiple crises. The divisions and contestations within the Popular Mobilisation Force (PMF), also known as al-Ḥashd ash-Shaʿbī, an umbrella organisation sponsored by the Iraqi state and comprising Iraqi militias, confront Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi with new domestic challenges.

Regional Contestations in Iraq

Although Iraq shares borders with several important states of the region, not all of them play an important role in Iraq (Jordan and Syria are examples). This is not to say that such states are immune to the events in Iraq. Events in one country of the region, as is often the case, have inevitable and irreversible effects on others. As might expected, however, the regional actors that remain heavily involved in Iraq are motivated primarily by their own interests and geopolitical objectives. The five main regional countries involved in the conflict in Iraq are primarily Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt.

Turkey: Kurds and Water

Turkey's largely passive involvement in Iraq in the early 2000s has evolved into a more activist and interventionist posture, mainly due to the ‘Kurdish awakening’ in the context of the Syrian uprisings. Essentially, there are two dimensions to Iraqi-Turkish relations: the Kurdish question and the watersharing agreement, both of which have existed for decades, albeit to varying degrees and intensity.