Amid the 2008-2009 financial crisis, some reputed but sensational Western media reports stated that the layoffs of foreign workers in the Gulf countries were making some cities look like “ghost” towns.

The Gulf countries did not have to exorcise the ghosts because, in reality, they were too few to worry about. What it did, however, was expose the myths of the Western financial system being full-proof. This fed into another opportunity for Gulf- Asia relations.

The world may be at another inflection point following the Covid-19 pandemic. The Gulf has no doubt been impacted by the crisis, but a meltdown is unlikely, as demonstrated during the 2014-2016 oil price slump of nearly 70%. While subtle adjustments were required, there were not too many dramatic changes in the workings of the Gulf economies thereafter.

It is speculation time again. As Covid-19 put the global economy into a tailspin, a rather pessimistic post-Covid economic scenario is doing the rounds, which has also resulted in extreme geo-economic and geopolitical forecasts. There may be more truth to the concerns this time than the previous two occasions, but to predict anything drastically adverse is biting off more than one can chew.

From an economic dimension, this optimism is derived from the rationale that the ‘need’ and ‘greed’ for money, which groups a huge majority of the world's population, will help the global economy recover lost ground. In fact, innovations resulting from the crisis, especially in the fourth industrial revolution domain, may yield a greater net result for global prosperity over the next few decades. While we hear about geo-economics, geopolitics and geo-security, we often ignore geo-technology. It is increasingly being pointed out that the country that brings to the fore better technological or digital tools, not military tools, to improve global economic fortunes is likely to dominate the world in the future.

Beyond the need-and-greed factor, the logic of economic growth over the decades and centuries, aided by a growing population, suggests that harping on pessimism is ill-advised. How could a world that adds 100 million annually to its population (150 million births versus 50 million deaths) not march forward? Countries experiencing growth may slow down, but the old order always gives way to the new.

Both the Gulf and Asia, which have a demographic advantage and a comparative advantage in production and consumption, are thus in a comfortable position to tap the progress earmarked for the 21st century. Since they are now better integrated with Africa than the West, they will also be able to capitalise on the developments in the ‘Hopeless’ continent that is becoming more and more ‘Hopeful’.