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An introduction to proxy data, paleoclimate databases, and data assimilation is presented. The reconstruction of paleoclimate fields is the defining measure for evaluation of climate change with respect to the modern transition from primarily natural variability forcing to anthropogenic forcing. This section focuses on proxy system modelling (PSM) and paleoclimate data assimilation (PDA) methods to merge objective numerical analysis of paleo-synoptic data with numerical-model hindcasts of paleoclimate. Prior to PDA, paleoclimate reconstructions were based upon regression models, principal component analysis (PCA), and Bayesian hierarchial models. These have limitations where data is sparse, and the PCA method relies on implied teleconnections. The PSM and PDA methods are designed to address these issues and model the uncertainty in reconstructions derived from the paleoclimate archive. Both statistical and process-based PSM methods are presented, as are recent applications. Kalman filtering and analogue-data modelling methods are presented as the methods most widely used for paleoclimate data assimilation, together with last millennial examples.
Projecting regional climate change over this century and the next remains challenging due to the chaotic nature of weather, but it is made more reliable through reconstructions of paleoweather in relation to climate change in atmospheric and ocean circulation, winds, waves, currents, and precipitation. This primer applies a cross-disciplinary treatment of large-scale and synoptic climatology to the reconstruction of past climates under the umbrella of synoptic paleoclimatology, providing the theory and application of synoptic paleoclimatology for the study and prediction of future climate evolution. Climate proxy and data–model assimilation methodologies are described in detail, focusing on coasts, the surface ocean, glaciers, and ice sheets. This book also presents a state-of-the-art synthesis of regional climate history across the Southern Hemisphere, including tropical coral reefs, coasts, alpine glaciers, and Antarctica. This book will be invaluable to advanced students, researchers, and practitioners in climatology, paleoclimatology, meteorology, coastal geoscience, glaciology, oceanography, global change, and climate risk assessment.
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