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The Trump and Biden administrations have spent an enormous amount of energy blaming each other for the final collapse. Pompeo excoriated Biden in his memoir, fully blaming him and claiming the Doha agreement had nothing to do with Afghanistan’s subsequent collapse. In turn, the Biden White House released a twelve-page document in April 2023 with their version of events, placing blame on the Trump administration. In their mutual finger-pointing, they are both right: Trump signed the deal, and Biden implemented it. Trump was determined to withdraw from Afghanistan irrespective of what the Taliban said or did, weakening the United States’ diplomatic and military position to the point of collapse. Biden, despite having campaigned on a promise to undo Trump’s legacy, inexplicably followed Trump’s example and implemented Trump’s strategy. Thanks to Trump, Biden inherited an extremely difficult situation – one he managed to make even worse. He played a bad hand badly. And he did so, in large part, because when he looked at Afghanistan, he saw Vietnam.
President Obama spent almost his entire presidency talking about withdrawing from Afghanistan, which ended up being the one thing he managed not to accomplish. Endless and repetitive strategy reviews had all come to similar conclusions – that the US should stay for the long haul and do more to rebuild Afghanistan – conclusions which Obama resisted until the logic of events forced his hand. The timetable was not the single point of failure of the Afghanistan war, nor the only driver of all the problems with Obama’s handling of it. It is, however, the most potent symbol of Obama’s war. The timetable was the product of the defeatism and cynicism that pervaded every aspect of Obama’s handling of the war even as it undermined the surge, obviated reconstruction, and hamstrung negotiations, worsening the very failures and disappointments that Obama used to justify lowering his ambitions in the first place, made all the worse by how predictable the consequences would be.
The Taliban insurgency happened because they enjoyed a permissive environment: safe haven in Pakistan, state failure in Afghanistan, and an America increasingly focused on Iraq. In turn, most of those had common roots in the Bush administration’s decisions in 2001: to define the conflict as a “War on Terror” best waged with a light footprint and to conflate the Taliban and al-Qaida. Some of those decisions made sense in 2001, but none of them bore scrutiny as the situation in Afghanistan changed, and the Bush administration failed to adapt quickly enough.
The 2009 strategy review resulted in the most consequential decisions of the war. While scholars and historians have typically focused on the surge of 30,000 additional troops, the administration’s strategy was not simply to add more troops. Obama rejected the logic that to defeat al-Qaida required defeating the Taliban and made an explicit decision not to seek the Taliban’s defeat – but he also chose to escalate the war against them anyway. Instead, Obama adopted a vague goal of “reversing their momentum,” while training Afghan security forces. That was muddled enough, but he undermined even those goals by adopting a public withdrawal timetable for US troops and failing to coordinate the surge with reconstruction and diplomatic efforts. Coupled with internal miscommunications, tensions with the military, and a growing attitude of pessimism, the changes introduced in the December 2009 strategy hamstrung the surge and set the course for the rest of Obama’s presidency.
For its first eighteen months, the Trump administration steered a surprisingly defensible course in Afghanistan, thanks to many of Trump’s appointees who worked to preserve something of America’s interests intact within the confines of Trump’s desire to reduce American commitments overseas. They were squeezed from two sides: on the one hand, the frustrating results of the Obama administration’s various strategies – surge, drawdown, and negotiations – seemed (wrongly) to prove their futility. On the other hand, virtually no one was convinced that Trump’s demand to get out fully and immediately was a good idea. They wanted to stay, but it was unclear what kind of posture, mission, or strategy would be more effective than what Obama had tried.
Trump’s newly empowered foreign policy led to the Doha agreement with the Taliban and America’s final defeat in Afghanistan. The Taliban’s principal demand and the central element of the eventual Doha agreement was the full withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan. It was hardly something the Taliban needed to demand because Trump was demanding it too. Trump was not inclined to enforce the agreement anyway. Trump campaigned on getting out of Afghanistan and repeatedly and publicly announced his intent to withdraw, which undermined negotiations just as much as Obama’s timetable had done.
Some common themes emerge from these lessons about strategy and bureaucracy. The statesman and strategist also need wisdom to take the long view, prudence to discern what is practical, persistence and fortitude in implementation, courage to overcome groupthink and pride and bureaucratic resistance, temperance and humility to toil in unglamorous details. Above all the strategist must have a passion to pursue justice and peace. Statesmen and stateswomen need wisdom, courage, temperance, and justice. If that is true, such timeless principles do not apply only to the individual policymaker. They apply to the nation we serve. American foreign policy should be characterized by wisdom, courage, temperance, and justice; our role in the world should serve those principles. Our grand strategy should take the long view, be practical and aware of our limits yet also courageous and visionary, fearless and uncompromising in the face of obstacles. Above all it must aim at justice – which means it must serve American interests, but it must do so with an awareness of how our interests are entwined with others.
Congruence between the policies implemented by elected representatives and voters’ policy preferences is fundamental to representation and democratic accountability. Can we anticipate a closer alignment between voters’ policy preferences and the policies explicitly adopted by elected representatives on the more electorally significant issues? We address this question using a simple game theoretic model, where we demonstrate that greater salience of a particular issue in elections leads to less congruence between the policies implemented by elected representatives compared to voters’ policy preferences on that very issue. This finding carries significant implications for the connection between electoral salience and representation on valence issues, and has particular relevance for understanding the democratic foundations of security and counterterrorism policies.
The introduction provides an overview of the book, presents the core arguments, highlights the contribution to current literature, explains the book’s methods and sources, and outlines the structure of the book. The overarching argument of the book is that intelligence cooperation was so beneficial for all parties that European authorities therefore let Mossad carry out its operation and tolerated the use of its intelligence to kill Palestinians. Hence, the book demonstrates that the extensive advantages that European agencies gained through Club de Berne intelligence-sharing led them to turn a blind eye towards, or even tacitly support, Israeli covert actions on their respective territories.
States frequently use leadership decapitation in their domestic and cross-border counter-insurgency/terrorism operations, yet the literature is far from having a consensus regarding its effects. I argue that literature focuses on the military implications of decapitation (its implications for the organisation’s operational capabilities/ability to generate violence) at the expense of its implications for negotiations between insurgents and the state. Second, I argue that leadership arrest and killing are analytically distinct categories of leadership decapitation that can trigger different processes and outcomes and that an arrested leader’s possible role from the prison should be considered in the analysis since leadership arrest alters the leader’s incentives, resulting in a new bargaining game between the leader, the state, and the organisation. I empirically illustrate these arguments using the arrest of the leader of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) Abdullah Öcalan as a theory-building case study. In the case study, I show that Abdullah Öcalan’s arrest was productive for terminating the conflict in the short run, whereas it was counter-productive in the medium and long run. These findings suggest that the literature may benefit from tracing the process closely, considering the dynamic nature of conflicts and the impact of decapitation on bargaining processes, without limiting the temporal scope of inquiry.
How do counterterrorism policies enable terrorist groups to thrive and survive? This article examines the relationship and how counterterrorism policies and political structures impact terrorist group success. While studies of terrorism have tended to separate the two phenomena, there is considerable complexity in the interactions between violent action and coercive state response. To demonstrate the complexity of these interactions, this article examines the persistence of three transnational terrorist groups from 1989 to 2022 – the Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammad, and the Hizbul Mujahideen – that operate in the Kashmir region despite India’s coercive counterterrorism policies. While existing research emphasises macro-level factors in transnational terrorism, this article, based on original qualitative data, demonstrates the critical importance of granular, localised opportunities for terrorist groups to carry on. We show how these structures interact with civilian perceptions of state legitimacy and security to create nuanced patterns of support. In doing so, we challenge simplistic explanations of terrorist recruitment and resilience. The article dispels existing misconceptions about the efficacy of coercive counterterrorism to end militant groups and further suggests that softer, non-coercive approaches might not necessarily generate public sympathy. In fact, select counterterrorism policies might inadvertently legitimise violence by extremist groups to their constituency and increase sympathy in the process.
The September 11, 2001, attacks on the United States further propelled the global focus on terrorism. Despite international efforts, the threat of terrorism remains throughout the world. In this chapter, the challenges in defining and analyzing terrorism are established by articulating the characteristics, structures, and motivations of groups that terrorize others. These definitions of terrorism, and the features of relevant groups, are then placed within the wider context of intrastate conflict. Key questions addressed include: Why does terrorism more frequently occur in war-torn countries? And how does its occurrence lower prospects for sustainable peace? This analysis is then used to inform modern counterterrorism methods, and how their evolution is critical for future international and national security along with peace mediation studies.
This paper develops the notion of ‘Platform Security’ to analyse the type of security power that seeks to work through facilitation and decentralised connection. The paper draws an analogy between the metaphor and model of the platform economy and contemporary security practices. It analyses the imaginaries and infrastructures of the platform economy and shows how these are present in the work of transnational security authorities. Like online platforms, contemporary security practitioners seek to connect local players in a manner that is data-driven and decentred. Like digital platforms, security organisations like FATF and Europol seem to understand themselves as utilities or services, whose primary aim is to ‘transmit communication and information data’ that they have not themselves produced or commissioned (Van Dijck 2013: 6). Analysing platform security through this lens, allows the development critical purchase on this mode of security power and raise critical questions about the organisation of responsibility and protections.
Long viewed as an example of effective multilateralism, UN peace operations are facing mounting challenges. Transformations in the landscape of conflict are outpacing their ability to respond. Rising expectations of peacekeeping have led to disenchantment with what they can deliver, while dis- and misinformation tactics undermine the efforts of the UN to make and build peace. As UN peace operations risk becoming another casualty of intensifying international tensions, great power rivalry, and the erosion of the rules and norms that govern international cooperation, we consider the future of UN peace operations. In the debate between a “pragmatic” and an “adaptive” approach to peacekeeping, we argue that a fundamental question is the ability of both alternatives to address three recurring issues that have shaped the effectiveness and legitimacy of peace operations: the mismatch between ambitious mandates and limited resources; the gap between the protection of civilians objective and its implementation in practice; and growing difficulties in honoring the principles of impartiality. We argue that policymakers and researchers should not lose sight of the fact that peacekeeping's legitimacy depends on its adherence to some version of host-state consent and some kind of restriction on when and how force is used. The expectation of civilian populations that the UN stands for protection also means that the UN must continue to safeguard some key norms associated with peacekeeping.
There is a growing concern about the evolution of violent extremism in the digital era. This chapter presents historical progression and current state of how extremists have used digital advancements to increase their reach and influence for their own nefarious purposes. This chapter also discusses the challenges due to encryption and the need for a strategic collaboration and comprehensive whole-of-society approach to combat the threats effectively.
This article explores the construction of terrorism via evidentiary practices, through the examination of terrorism trials in Nigeria. By conceptualising legal evidence – or evidencing – as a juridical practice of truth-making, the article contributes to the growing stream of critical literature on terrorism trials, and pre-emptive security more broadly, by examining the production of terrorism knowledge in light of the dominant pre-crime rationality that typically underpins counte-terrorism practice. The article highlights the complex processes and practices involved in the making of juridical truth in court and criminal justice processes, and how this enables the production and contestation of terrorism.
The article utilises important works on truth-making, alongside the contemporary literature on terrorism trials, to develop its theoretical and methodological approach. The empirical data for this study include court documents of terrorism cases in Nigeria, including those from the so-called Kainji trials, which emerged from fieldwork conducted in Abuja, Nigeria in 2020. The article demonstrates the productivity of legal evidence in the context of terrorism trials, involving different truth-makers, narratives, techniques, temporalities, and rationalities. In doing so, the article therefore contributes to the problematisation of terrorism and related issues of pre-emption, as well as the discussion on truth-making, by illustrating how the production of legal truth is shaped by different narratives, material practices, and logics in terrorism trials.
Chapter 3 focuses on the figure of the jihadist in the context of the Syrian Civil War. Outlawed as a terrorist by the Security Council and perceived as a security threat in home states, this latest version of the enemy of humanity seems to have nothing in common with previous foreign fighters. The aim of the chapter is to re-inscribe this actor within the longer history of foreign volunteering. It shifts from domestic debates to national courtrooms, showing how the jihadist combatant gets constantly split in two: idealist and fanatic, hero and villain, martyr and freedom fighter. Based on previous images of the foreign fighter, these dichotomies highlight different conceptions of freedom and hence problematize its current conflation with terrorism. The chapter ends with a digression on the laws of war, revealing the persisting cultural bias used against certain foreign combatants through the domestic application of IHL.
This article serves as the introduction to a Special Issue of the European Journal of International Security titled ‘What the War on Terror Leaves Behind’. In it, we seek to contextualise and summarise the diverse contributions of this collection, which is animated by four overarching questions: (i) More than 20 years after the attacks of 11 September 2001, is the War on Terror now, finally, over? (ii) What, if any, legacies remain from the post-9/11 way of thinking and doing counterterrorism? (iii) What is the significance of the War on Terror’s legacies or absence thereof? and, (iv) How do the War on Terror’s impacts and effects sit within other historical contexts and (dis)continuities? The article begins with a brief overview of some of the conceptual and political ambiguities of the War on Terror itself, before situating the issue in relation to issues of continuity and change anticipated by the four questions above. A second section then explores the urgency of these questions for academic debate, and in the ‘real world’ of international security as experienced by states, communities, and other subjects. A third section then summarises the argument and contributions of the articles in the issue –highlighting the lack of agreement on key issues within these debates.
Terrorist attacks on the aviation sector represent a significant security challenge due to the high-profile status of airports and aircraft. These attacks not only jeopardize global security but also have severe public health repercussions, leading to widespread casualties and psychological distress.
Methods
This study conducted a comprehensive retrospective analysis using data from the Global Terrorism Database to explore the patterns, frequencies, and impacts of terrorist attacks on the aviation sector worldwide. The analysis spanned incidents from 1970 to 2020, focusing on attack types, affected regions, and the direct and indirect health consequences arising from these incidents.
Results
Over the 50-year period, the study identified 1183 terrorist attacks targeting the aviation sector. Bombings and explosions emerged as the most common and deadliest forms of attack, responsible for the majority of fatalities and injuries. The data also highlighted significant regional disparities, with certain areas experiencing higher frequencies of attacks and more severe outcomes. Notably, North America bore a disproportionately high number of fatalities, primarily due to the events of September 11, 2001.
Conclusions
The findings emphasize the ongoing and evolving threat of terrorism in the aviation industry, underscoring the critical need for a proactive and comprehensive approach to security and public health preparedness. Future strategies should prioritize the integration of advanced technological solutions, enhanced international cooperation, and thorough public health planning to mitigate the impact of terrorist attacks on aviation effectively.
This article critically examines the major shortcomings in multi-country security investments in East Africa during the war on terror. It argues that these investments have not only failed to adequately recognise African contexts but also falls short of recognising the agency of local communities in counterterrorism efforts. Drawing on critical terrorism and security studies, as well as excerpts from interviews with practitioners in Kenya, the article identifies gaps in the prevailing approach that treats Africa as a unitary entity and critiques the notion of universality of knowledge ingrained in these interventions. By taking a decolonial perspective, the article challenges some prevailing constructions about Africa, linked to the war on terror, as the source of this notion of universality of knowledge. By highlighting the connection of counterterrorism strategies to coloniality and the systemic exclusion of subaltern voices, the discussion suggests that a more contextually informed approach is a precursor to envisioning Africa positioned beyond the war on terror.