18.1 Introduction
Why would anyone file a legal action about climate change against a company?Footnote 1 Prima facie, the idea of holding a corporation (or any other individual actor) accountable for the ‘super-wicked’ collective problem of anthropogenic climate change may indeed seem rather surprising.Footnote 2 And yet, at closer inspection, it is not as farfetched as it might at first seem. The increasing trend of climate lawsuits against private actors is underpinned by two main considerations. First, collectively and in some cases individually, large corporations have caused vast quantities of greenhouse gas emissions since the Industrial Revolution.Footnote 3 The emissions attributable to the largest industrial greenhouse gas emitters (sometimes referred to as ‘carbon majors’) rival or even exceed those of entire States.Footnote 4 Corporate activities have historically contributed substantially to anthropogenic climate change and continue to do so. Second, the role of the business sector is essential in the global transition to a ‘net-zero’ global economy by around mid-century: having a fair chance of achieving the Paris Agreement’s peak temperature goal entails ‘deep emission reductions in all sectors, a wide portfolio of mitigation options and a significant scaling up of investments in those options’.Footnote 5 Accordingly, both looking backward and looking forward, the role of the business sector is essential. And yet, the crucial query is whether there is a legal responsibility (that is, liability in case of non-fulfilment of such responsibility) for corporations to take (or to refrain from taking) certain actions concerning climate change, and if so, what such responsibility would look like more specifically. Clear answers cannot always be found in black-letter law, and so interested groups increasingly resort to ‘Private Climate Litigation’ (PCL). These cases often explore uncharted waters.
Throughout the three decades since the adoption of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1992, anthropogenic climate change has been approached as an issue to be dealt with by States, co-ordinated at the intra-governmental level under the aegis of the United Nations (UN). This State-centric approach assumes that States are willing to, and actually capable of, collectively ‘governing’ climate change, thereby achieving the ultimate goal of the UNFCCC – stabilising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system (UNFCCC article 2) as specified through the Paris Agreement’s peak temperature goal.Footnote 6 However, global greenhouse gas emissions continue to reach new record levels each year.Footnote 7 The lack of sufficient action and ambition on the part of governments is expressed through their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement, which are far from being aligned with a pathway compatible with the Paris Agreement’s peak temperature goal; worse, emissions are projected to further increase based on current NDCs.Footnote 8 Accordingly, considerable doubt arises as to whether placing responsibility to address climate change on States alone – while neglecting the business sector – is justified.Footnote 9 The situation just described calls for taking a closer look at the responsibility of non-State actors,Footnote 10 and in particular corporations, whose enormous greenhouse gas emissions and global influence due to their economic power are comparatively ignored in the climate change context.Footnote 11
Traditionally, and although this has been contested, only States are viewed as subjects of international law, including in international climate change law.Footnote 12 Since the 1970s, numerous attempts to define corporate obligations under international law concerning environmental and social issues were made (for the most part, under the aegis of the UN), but failed.Footnote 13 Thus, by and large, corporations and other non-State actors have been ignored (or rather, excluded on purpose) as relevant actors with responsibilities to ‘address’ climate change at the international level (either through mitigation, adaptation, or any form of redress for loss and damage).Footnote 14 Notably, some large corporations and industry associations have lobbied heavily against the introduction of stronger climate regulations.Footnote 15 Due to the perceived lack of responsibility under international law, companies are primarily concerned with climate-related national regulations, which clearly apply to them directly. At the domestic and regional (European Union) levels, corporations (and in particular ‘multinational’ or ‘transnational’ enterprises) operate in a complex and highly fragmented web of technical regulations consisting mainly of carbon taxation schemes, product standards, corporate reporting obligations, and (increasingly, and especially in Europe) due diligence requirements.Footnote 16 And yet, although it would thus seem that corporations are largely unaffected by international climate change law, the ostensibly clear lines between the public sphere (where international law is undoubtedly applicable) and the private sphere (where this is less clear) are heavily blurred. The separation between the public and the private sectors is particularly delicate in the context of climate change. In fact, many of the world’s largest industrial corporate greenhouse gas emitters and the vast majority of the world’s remaining fossil fuel reserves are state-controlled.Footnote 17 This public/private divide is rarely discussed in climate law literature,Footnote 18 and will not be explored further here, but it is important to keep in mind in the broader context of PCL.Footnote 19
Together with growing regulatory activity across jurisdictions, financial market developments due to the broad recognition that climate change entails significant financial risks to corporate and global financial stability, and increasing shareholder engagement on climate change, PCL can be viewed as one of the main drivers of the increasing focus on ‘Corporate Climate Responsibility’, as the author has argued elsewhere.Footnote 20 And yet, as Bouwer observes, ‘the extent of private law’s potential contribution [to climate change litigation] tends to be overlooked’.Footnote 21 Aiming at contributing to filling this gap, this chapter offers a brief conceptualisation and taxonomy of PCL. The remainder of the chapter is structured as follows. The second section proposes a definition for the term PCL and identifies its main categories. The third section sketches various characteristics of PCL. The chapter then concludes by offering brief remarks as to whether PCL can be viewed as a tool for implementing climate change policies. The chapter does not by any means attempt to provide a comprehensive overview of the complex topic, but rather aims at systematising the phenomenon of PCL via select cases in order to outline a foundational taxonomy.
18.2 What is Private Climate Litigation?
18.2.1 Definition
Climate change litigation is a complex phenomenon that ‘cuts across multiple levels of governance, areas of law, and sectors of the economy’.Footnote 22 Despite a growing body of specialised literature,Footnote 23 no generally accepted definition of climate change litigation has emerged.Footnote 24 Proposed definitions range from ‘narrower’ conceptions, which require that climate change or greenhouse gases are an explicit (albeit not necessarily the only) subject-matter of the case,Footnote 25 to ‘broader’ definitions that also consider the motivation of the plaintiffs or that include cases where climate change is not the central issue,Footnote 26 but rather a peripheral one.Footnote 27 One may further distinguish between ‘strategic’ climate litigation, which aims at putting ‘bottom-up’ pressure (be it on public or private actors), and ‘non-strategic’ climate litigation where climate change represents a secondary component of a legal action.Footnote 28
While most cases are directed against State actors (public climate litigation), there is an increasing trend of legal actions in the private sphere (PCL). Notably, due to the blurred lines between the public and the private spheres, there may be cases where the allocation to either public or private climate litigation is debatable – notably, the categorisation as either public or private climate litigation is merely declaratory and does not have any legal consequences per se.
What does this chapter mean by PCL? Ganguly, Setzer, and Heyvaert define strategic private climate litigation as ‘cases launched with the explicit aspiration to influence corporate behaviour and strategies in relation to climate change’.Footnote 29 While such framing tends to focus on high-profile cases, the concept of PCL in this chapter is more encompassing in that it also includes ‘non-strategic’ cases as well as cases where climate change is rather a ‘secondary’ theme, at least to the extent that there is a reasonably clear (rather than just a remote) link to climate change in the plaintiffs’ claim. Whereas this last criterion (a reasonably clear link) leaves room for interpretation in some cases, PCL as defined here is focused on objective criteria (the legal status of the involved parties; the legal basis that the claim is based on – see Section 18.3) rather than subjective or ‘soft’ factors such as the motivation or even ‘ultimate goals’ of the plaintiffs. Of course, this is not to say that these ‘soft’ factors are not interesting or worthwhile exploring, but arguably they are of little help to identify a claim as PCL because: (a) they do not form part of the plaintiff’s legal argument and are thus not detailed in their claim, making them unidentifiable to the objective observer; and (b) where there is more than one plaintiff in the same legal action, their individual motivations are not necessarily identical. In the light of the foregoing, PCL here refers to legal actions (brought before either courts or non-judicial dispute resolution bodies) that have a reasonably clear link to climate change, are directed against a private actor, and have their legal basis in private law.
The following example illustrates how ‘non-strategic’ cases that do not necessarily put climate change front and centre of their claim may nevertheless qualify as PCL. In the vast amount of private litigation that has ensued worldwide in the aftermath of criminal proceedings in the so-called ‘Dieselgate’ scandal,Footnote 30 it is unlikely that plaintiffs were invoking climate change arguments to claim compensation for buying a vehicle with much less ‘green’ credentials than advertised by the seller. And yet, at their core, these disputes concern greenhouse gas emissions (in the Dieselgate context, vehicle emissions). There is thus a ‘reasonably clear link’ to climate change in such a case.
18.2.2 Main Categories
The ‘first wave’ of climate lawsuits against corporate emitters (spanning the period from around 2005 to 2015) was litigated mainly before United States courts. Key cases include Comer v. Murphy Oil USAFootnote 31 and Native Village of Kivalina v. ExxonMobil.Footnote 32 In both instances, the plaintiffs’ argument that the defendants (both companies in the energy sector) were responsible for climate-change-related injuries suffered by the plaintiffs was dismissed by the courts.Footnote 33 While this ‘first wave’ of climate change lawsuits against major greenhouse gas emitters in the United States remained largely unsuccessful (that is, from the perspective of the plaintiffs), a second, perhaps much stronger ‘wave’ began to build up across a broader range of jurisdictions.Footnote 34 The ‘first wave’ at least partially attempted to draw on strategies deployed in tobacco and asbestos litigation, whereas the second is characterised by a wider range of litigation strategies and arguments.Footnote 35 Early indicators such as the District Court of The Hague’s ruling in Milieudefensie and others v. Royal Dutch Shell (Milieudefensie) in May 2021 show an increased likelihood of success for plaintiffs.Footnote 36
At least two main categories of PCL cases can be identified.Footnote 37 The most obvious difference is the type of plaintiff, which influences the legal basis relied upon: from a company’s perspective, a claim is either brought by a ‘third party’ (meaning a legal subject that does not stand in a direct legal relationship, contractually or otherwise, with the company), or a ‘corporate constituency’ (meaning a legal subject that stands in a direct legal relationship, contractually or otherwise, with the company). We can thus differentiate between ‘external’ and ‘internal’ cases.
The first type of PCL is cases brought by or on behalf of individuals against large heavy-emitter corporations (here referred to as David v. Goliath cases, or ‘external’ cases). These lawsuits typically claim that companies have a (partial) responsibility for having contributed to climate change and seek redress in the form of compensation or – in some more recent cases – declaratory or injunctive relief (in particular, with a view to reducing the respondent’s greenhouse gas emissions). The second category is cases brought by ‘corporate constituencies’ (‘internal cases’, typically filed by shareholders or beneficiaries of pension funds). Often, but not always, this type of PCL takes place in a financial market context. The subject matter of these legal actions varies, but the main theme is allegations of inadequate disclosure and management of climate change-related financial risks.Footnote 38 The emergence of ‘internal’ cases is an expression of the fact that climate risks are ‘bidirectional’ for corporations.Footnote 39 On the one hand, major corporate emitters have significantly contributed to the creation of climate change risks and impacts. On the other, climate change has become such a serious issue that it also represents a financial risk to corporations, even threatening global financial stability.Footnote 40 The recognition of climate change risks as financial risks calls for adequate corporate governance measures (in particular, in the areas of risk management and disclosure), which in turn triggers fiduciary duties directors owe to the company they oversee.Footnote 41 A potential third category (which may not always fall under the definition of PCL as framed here, because it typically represents public enforcement) is ‘climate-washing’ cases, where corporations face legal challenges over their climate-related advertisements.Footnote 42
Data extrapolated from the two main (and interlinked) open-access databases on climate change litigation give indications as to the magnitude and geographical spread of PCL.Footnote 43 In September 2022, the first database listed 98 lawsuits against corporations (outside the United States) in a broad range of jurisdictions.Footnote 44 Within the United States, it is more difficult to ascertain the number of PCL cases, as the part of the first database on U.S. cases is organised by type of claim rather than the category of respondents.Footnote 45 The second database, which covers only non-U.S. cases, identifies a total of 276 results for litigation involving a corporate actor.Footnote 46 Although still by far outnumbered by cases in the public sphere, the data suggest that the share of PCL cases within climate change litigation as a whole is substantial and potentially growing. Notably, the amount of PCL cases would be much higher if cases with a rather ‘incidental’ (but nevertheless reasonably clear) link to climate change were to be included. Although the databases consulted are not searchable by the key characteristics of PCL as proposed here (type of respondent, legal basis, reasonably clear link to climate change), the above-mentioned figures are useful indicators.
18.3 Characteristics of Private Climate Litigation
18.3.1 Dispute Resolution Forum and Parties
Across jurisdictions PCL cases are brought not only before courts and supervisory authorities (whose decisions are typically subject to judicial review), but also before non-judicial bodies such as National Contact Points (NCPs) under the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s (OECD) Guidelines for Multinational Enterprises.Footnote 47 Further, climate change is perceived as an increasingly relevant subject matter in commercial arbitration, but due to confidentiality around these matters, there are no reliable data available for analysis.Footnote 48 Moreover, as a sign of growing shareholder engagement on climate change, there is a trend of ‘Say on Climate’ shareholder resolutions at annual general meetings.Footnote 49 Notably, raising an issue at an annual general meeting can represent a pre-litigation stage to a PCL claim.
On the side of the plaintiffs, the parties vary depending on the category of PCL. David v. Goliath or external cases are commonly brought by or on behalf of individuals (ranging from one single person to tens of thousands of citizens), with non-governmental organisations (such as foundations and associations) often serving as co-plaintiffs or supporters (that is, they are not formally parties to the proceedings).Footnote 50 In some instances, cases are even brought in the interest of future generations (in addition to the interest of currently living individuals).Footnote 51 ‘Internal’ cases, by contrast, are typically filed by shareholders, often in a derivative suit.Footnote 52 In a subset of cases, beneficiaries have brought legal actions against their pension funds, and in some cases the trustees of these pension funds, typically alleging inadequate transparency about climate-related risks.Footnote 53 Obviously, the applicable rules and precedents determine who has standing to bring a PCL claim, but within these boundaries, litigation strategy considerations are likely relevant as well to the selection of the plaintiffs. Further, some jurisdictions are rather favourable of bundling mass claims (for instance, the Netherlands, the United States) and third-party funding arrangements, while others are not. Instances where authorities launch public enforcement type of proceedings against companies (for instance, under corporate law, competition law, consumer protection law, or criminal law)Footnote 54 typically do not qualify as PCL as defined here. But in some instances, private plaintiffs will be entitled to attach their private claims to public enforcement types of proceedings (or public authorities may attach civil claims to civil proceedings), making the public/private distinction less clear-cut. Further, especially in some ‘anti-regulatory’ cases, corporations appear as the plaintiffs in climate change litigation.Footnote 55
On the side of the respondents, PCL is usually directed against corporations.Footnote 56 In some instances (especially in the United States), company directors and senior officers are targeted as co-respondents, typically facing allegations of having breached their fiduciary duties by inadequate disclosure and management of climate change risks.Footnote 57 Many PCL respondents operate in the energy and fossil fuel sectors, but plaintiffs have more recently broadened their spectrum to other greenhouse gas-intensive industries including manufacturing,Footnote 58 building materials (in particular cement),Footnote 59 finance (that is, organisations such as banks and pension funds),Footnote 60 transport (particularly aviation and shipping),Footnote 61 and animal agriculture.Footnote 62 Further, third-party litigation funders have begun to show interest in climate-related disputes.Footnote 63 These actors have a financial incentive and can choose to support either side of a dispute.
18.3.2 Remedies
Two main types of remedies sought by PCL plaintiffs can be distinguished. In most cases (both ‘external’ and ‘internal’ cases), plaintiffs seek financial compensation. For instance, plaintiffs claim a financial contribution to local measures needed to avert or mitigate imminent climate change-related harm (for instance, the construction of anti-flooding works).Footnote 64 In some recent cases filed in Europe, PCL plaintiffs have sought declaratory or injunctive relief such as a court order compelling a corporation to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions, or the production of internal documents in order to be able to assess the adequacy of climate-risk management.Footnote 65 Notably, compensation claims can be combined with seeking declaratory and injunctive relief in the same PCL action.Footnote 66
PCL plaintiffs explore largely uncharted waters, which has led to remarkable decisions in some instances. One main example is the unprecedented ruling of the District Court of The Hague in Milieudefensie. For the first time worldwide, in May 2021, a corporation (specifically, the top holding company of the Shell group) was ordered by a Court to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions – in this case, to reduce the carbon dioxide emissions (both direct and indirect emissions) of the entire group by at least 45% until 2030 (relative to 2019 levels).Footnote 67 The case builds on precedent in public-sector litigation against the Government of the Netherlands (Urgenda v. The Netherlands),Footnote 68 which points to potential ‘cross-fertilisation’ between PCL and public-sector climate litigation.
The pending case of Lliuya v. RWE is the first legal action in Germany concerning whether major greenhouse gas emitters – in this case, Germany’s largest producer of electricity – can be held liable for climate change-related damages.Footnote 69 The plaintiff, a Peruvian farmer threatened by the consequences of melting glaciers above his home town in the Andes, claims compensation proportional to the RWE’s alleged historical contribution to climate change (0.47% of global industrial emissions between 1751 and 2010). The court of first instance (the Landesgericht Essen) rejected the claim for lack of causation between the respondent’s greenhouse gas emissions and the alleged infringement of the plaintiff’s property rights.Footnote 70 However, in 2018, the appellate court (Oberlandesgericht Hamm) held in an interlocutory decision that the fact that there are multiple tortfeasors does not of itself exclude the individual (partial) responsibility of each single tortfeasor, provisionally accepting the plaintiff’s legal standpoint in this regard.Footnote 71
A further example showing the diversity of legal remedies in PCL is McVeigh v. REST, an Australian case heard before that country’s Federal Court.Footnote 72 In this matter, a member of one of Australia’s largest superannuation funds (the Retail Employees Superannuation Trust, or REST) alleged that the fund’s failure to provide information concerning its exposure to climate change risks and any actions taken to address them prevented the plaintiff (as a beneficiary of that fund) from making an informed judgement about the fund’s management and financial condition. The case was resolved through a settlement that included REST’s commitment to take various measures concerning climate risk management including by implementing a long-term objective to achieve a net-zero carbon footprint for the fund by 2050 and measuring, monitoring, and reporting outcomes on its climate-related progress and actions in line with the Recommendations of the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD), among other things.Footnote 73
18.3.3 Legal Basis
As noted earlier, there are at present no specific legal obligations for corporations directly derived from international climate change law – with possible exceptions with regard to State-controlled entities. Accordingly, PCL plaintiffs (must) resort to their domestic laws as a primary legal basis for their claims. These domestic norms are localised primarily in tort law (in particular, the torts of negligence and nuisance) or its civil law equivalents (such as non-contractual law and delicts),Footnote 74 corporate law and financial market law, and potentially other areas such as consumer protection law or antitrust law.
And yet, international law may be applicable ‘indirectly’ in PCL. Domestic laws commonly provide for openly framed (or ‘open-ended’) standards that purposefully leave room for specification or interpretation. A primary example in the present context is the duty of care (or its equivalents in civil law systems).Footnote 75 Arguably, domestic laws do not comprehensively regulate corporate responsibility concerning climate change. Accordingly, at least in Europe, PCL plaintiffs seem to increasingly invoke other sources of the law to give more specific meaning to open standards in national law. Such ‘secondary’ sources include, in particular, international human rights law (in Europe, especially, the rights to life and to respect for private and family life under the European Convention on Human Rights) and international standards on business conduct (in particular, the UN Guiding Principles and the OECD Guidelines for Multinational Enterprises).Footnote 76 ‘Secondary’ here means that these sources of the law, albeit not directly enforceable against a corporation (either because they are considered to only apply to States or to be some sort of ‘soft law’), may well serve as interpretive sources to specify a broadly framed standard in domestic law; through this mechanism, they are applied ‘indirectly’ to specify corporations’ and directors’ legal obligations.Footnote 77 Due to differences between legal traditions, creating such ‘indirect’ effect through the judiciary may have more chances of success in some jurisdictions (such as in the Netherlands) than in others.Footnote 78 Generally, courts seem to be increasingly open to novel arguments. For instance, the New Zealand case of Smith v. Fonterra begs the question whether there may be a specific ‘common law climate tort’ that is forward-looking and preventive in nature.Footnote 79
18.3.4 Novel Legal Questions
PCL triggers novel, complex, and uncomfortable questions that most judges are not accustomed to answering. Typically, legal hurdles for PCL plaintiffs relate to justiciability (especially, but not only, in the United States), standing, and proof of causation and damage.Footnote 80 Obviously, additional practical hurdles exist, especially due to the high legal costs that such cases entail. In cases concerning compensation for climate change-related damages, the establishment of causation and damage commonly builds on findings of climate science.Footnote 81 Some commentators argue that the emerging science on extreme weather attribution may alleviate the burden of proof in this respect.Footnote 82 By contrast, in ‘internal’ cases, the question of causality refers to whether inadequate attention to or insufficient disclosure of climate related risks has led to a financial loss to shareholders or unduly puts a pension fund’s beneficiaries’ financial entitlements at risk.
Even if liability can be established in principle, questions remain as to its precise scope. For instance, does a corporation’s responsibility extend to the full range of direct and indirect emissions (scope one, scope two, scope three)? Does a parent company’s responsibility extend to all group emissions (that is, the emissions of all its subsidiaries)? These questions were addressed in substance – to the author’s knowledge for the first time by a court in this depth – in Milieudefensie. With respect to the first question, the court there affirmed that a company’s legal responsibility goes beyond its direct emissions (scope one), stating that there is an international consensus that corporations bear responsibilities concerning their scope three emissions.Footnote 83 Remarkably, the court further held that mainly due to its corporate policy setting position for the entire group, Royal Dutch Shell as the primary holding company is in principle responsible for all its subsidiaries’ greenhouse gas emissions.Footnote 84 Milieudefensie for the first time discusses the substance of key legal questions, which is in itself a major development. And yet, more research and case-law is necessary to delineate the contours of corporate climate responsibility more clearly.
As Bouwer points out, ‘[PCL] requires judges to engage in deeply normative processes, for instance in determining what might be reasonable, or the extent to which parties might be required to foresee problems’.Footnote 85 As for now, commentators are divided in their opinions about PCL. For some, PCL (and climate change litigation generally) is a useful tool to put pressure on both heavy corporate emitters and the directors of those companies – even more so considering that regulatory efforts in this direction seem difficult to achieve.Footnote 86 Others view going after individual emitters to be a pointless effort, among other reasons arguing that any corporate action following a lost lawsuit (say, a court-ordered reduction in greenhouse gas emissions) will be offset by the actions of competitors.Footnote 87 As the ‘wave’ of PCL can be expected to grow and develop further, this controversy will certainly continue.
18.4 Conclusion
International law and national climate regulations barely address the responsibilities of corporations and other non-State actors. And yet, it is impossible to ignore the crucial role of corporations (and their key corporate governance constituencies including the board of directors, shareholders, and others) in the transition to a global net-zero economy by mid-century. Undoubtedly, corporations are increasingly affected by the growing focus on corporate climate responsibility. PCL is one of the drivers of this development, in addition to increasing regulatory activities, shareholder engagement on climate change, and the growing recognition of unprecedented climate change-related financial risks. In that sense, PCL points to (and potentially contributes to filling) an accountability gap for corporations.
When thinking about the effectiveness of PCL to implement climate policies,Footnote 88 one key aspect to consider is that, as is well-known, judicial proceedings may take years until a final decision is rendered. For instance, the matter of Lliuya v. RWE has reportedly suffered substantial delays due to the COVID-19-related inability of German judges to travel to Peru.Footnote 89 Against the need to achieve substantial reductions of greenhouse gases by 2030 in order to keep somewhat realistic chances of limiting temperature rise under the Paris Agreement’s peak temperature goal,Footnote 90 can litigation deliver results fast enough, even if the plaintiffs succeed? Or is the judicial process simply too slow in the face of escalating climate change impacts, rendering PCL a moot exercise? Be that as it may, recent examples show that quicker outcomes are possible through settlements,Footnote 91 and that the effectiveness of PCL may be increased by courts declaring their orders to be immediately effective.Footnote 92 Further, non-judicial bodies such as NCPs under the OECD Guidelines for Multinational Enterprises may provide ‘results’ more swiftly.
As regards the need for further research, in addition to the multitude of legal questions triggered by PCL, more systematic research on PCL extrapolated from national law settings would be useful to better grapple with the phenomenon of PCL from a comparative point of view. Such research would benefit from improved accuracy of the existing climate change litigation databases. On a final note, while only time will tell whether PCL will contribute to deliver on what is probably its main purpose, to affect corporate behaviour as regards climate change, we can conclude that this type of litigation has reached a level of sophistication and likelihood of success that corporations and diligent directors certainly cannot ignore.