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Banque Centrale Européenne, relations stratégiquesinternationales et stabilisation de la dette

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  17 August 2016

Charles Figuières
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Abstract:

The adoption of a common central Bank has modified the strategicrelationships between fiscal and monetary authorities and raised in a newcontext the issue of debt stabilization. To study this problem, Van Aarle et al (1997) have proposed a two-country model with acommon central bank. In a sense they obtained a neutrality result: theadoption of a common central bank does not modify the evolution of debt ifthe authorities can commit. This note reexamines this neutrality result bydeparting from the previous authors on three points: i) externalities areintroduced between countries to account for the elasticity of the worldinterest rate to macro-economic policies, ii) the model features n countries, some of them remaining outside the monetaryUnion, iii) analytical results are given (many results of Van Aarle et al (1997) were numeric). In this extended context theneutrality result collapses: i) the institutional change introduces anasymmetry between countries, ii) countries inside the monetary union improvetheir long run welfare, iii) but the outside countries can win or lose underthe new institutional setting.

Résumé:

Résumé:

L’adoption d’une Banque centrale européenne a modifié les relationsstratégiques entre les autorités fiscale et monétaire et pose sous un journouveau la question de la stabilisation de la dette. Pour étudier ceproblème, Van Aarle et al (1997) ont proposé un modèle àdeux pays avec une Banque centrale commune. Ils obtiennent un résultat deneutralité: le changement institutionnel ne modifie pas l’évolution de ladette si les autorités peuvent s’engager. Cette note réexamine ce résultatde neutralité en s’écartant des auteurs précédents sur trois points: i) desexternalités entre les pays sont introduites en raison de l’élasticité dutaux d’intérêt mondial aux variables macroéconomiques; ii) le modèlecomporte n pays dont certains restent en dehors de l’Unionmonétaire; iii) les résultats sont analytiques (la plupart des résultats deVan Aarle et al (1997) étaient numériques). Dans ce nouveau contexte lerésultat de neutralité s’effrondre: i) une asymétrie apparaît entre lespays; ii) les pays de l’Union améliorent leur bien-être de long terme; iii)en dehors de l’Union les pays peuvent voir leur bien-être s’améliorer ou sedégrader.

Keywords

European Central Bankdebt stabilizationmacroeconomic policiesdynamic gamesC73D92L16Banque Centrale Européennestabilisation de la dettepolitiques macroéconomiquesjeux dynamiquesC73D92L16

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Type
Research Article
Information
Recherches Économiques de Louvain/ Louvain Economic Review , Volume 74 , Issue 2 , 2008 , pp. 167 - 190
Copyright
Copyright © Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de recherches économiques et sociales 2008 

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Footnotes

*

INRA, UMR LAMETA, 2 place Viala, 34060 Montpellier, France. E-mail:Charles.Figuieres@supagro.inra.fr.

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