Based on George Bush's net approval rating of −1% in the final Gallup Poll in June, a 3.7%growth rate for real GDP during the first two quarters of 2004, and the fact that theRepublican Party had controlled the White House for only one term, the time-for-change modelpredicted that Mr. Bush would win reelection with 53.7% of the major party vote. Thisforecast was made in late July, before the Republican National Convention and more thanthree months before Election Day.