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After the Vote: Evaluating a Prospective Forecasting Model of PresidentialElections

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  06 April 2005

Brad Lockerbie
Brad Lockerbie
Affiliation:
University of Georgia
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Extract

There are two components to my model of presidential election forecasting: Given theenormous amount of work on voting behavior that finds prospective assessments of the economyto be strongly related to vote choice (e.g., Abramowitz 1985;Kuklinski and West 1981; Lewis-Beck 1988; Lockerbie 1992), I make use of a prospective economic item from the Survey ofConsumer Attitudes and Behavior that asks if the next year will be better, worse, or thesame for the respondent. I take the average of the negative responses to this question fromthe first quarter of the election year as my economic measure. These data are available inlate April.

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Type
Symposium
Information
PS: Political Science & Politics , Volume 38 , Issue 1 , January 2005 , pp. 39 - 40
Copyright
© 2005 by the American Political Science Association

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References

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