For all the signs of a dead heat in the horserace polls and strong hints of a victory forSenator John Kerry in exit polls on Election Day itself, the reelection of George W. Bushproved predictable from a model with a leading indicator available as far back as January.The forecast published in the October 2004 issue of PS was initially postedon January 29, 2004, the day after the New Hampshire Primary. It claimed, with 95%certainty, that President George W. Bush would defeat Democrat John Kerry in November. Theforecast, which was not subject to any revision throughout the remainder of the electionyear, gave Bush 54.7% and Kerry 45.3% of the major-party vote. It missed the actual divisionof the major-party vote by a little more than one unit of the forecast error (2.7). All inall, a satisfactory performance of the model.