Hostname: page-component-84c44f86f4-vnpbn Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2025-10-14T20:45:04.132Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

THE WORLD ECONOMY: Global outlook overview

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  28 April 2020

Barry Naisbitt ,
Janine Boshoff ,
Dawn Holland ,
Ian Hurst ,
Amit Kara ,
Iana Liadze ,
Corrado Macchiarelli ,
Xuxin Mao ,
Patricia Sanchez Juanino  and
Craig Thamotheram
...Show all authors
Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

An abstract is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. As you have access to this content, a full PDF is available via the ‘Save PDF’ action button.
Image of the first page of this content. For PDF version, please use the ‘Save PDF’ preceeding this image.'

Information

Type
Forecast Summaries
Information
National Institute Economic Review , Volume 252 , May 2020 , pp. F44 - F88
Copyright
© National Institute of Economic and Social Research, 2020

Footnotes

*

All questions and comments related to the forecast and its underlying assumptions should be addressed to Iana Liadze (i.liadze@niesr.ac.uk).

We would like to thank Jagjit Chadha and Garry Young for helpful comments and Patricia Sanchez Juanino for preparing the charts and compiling the database underlying the forecast. The forecast was completed on 17 April 2020. Exchange rate, interest rate and equity price assumptions are based on information available to 10 April 2020. Unless otherwise specified, the source of all data reported in tables and figures is the NiGEM database and NIESR forecast baseline.

References

REFERENCES

Baldwin, R. (2020), ‘The supply side matters: guns versus butter, COVID-style’, VoxEU Column, 22 March.Google Scholar
Baldwin, R. and Weder di Mauro, B. (eds) (2020), Economics in the Time of COVID-19, Centre for Economic Policy Research e-book, 6 March.Google Scholar
Baldwin, R. and Weder di Mauro, B. (eds) (2020), ‘Mitigating the COVID economic crisis: act fast and do whatever it takes’, Centre for Economic Policy Research e-book, 18 March.Google Scholar
de France, Banque (2020), ‘Update on business conditions in France at the end of March 2020’, 8 April.Google Scholar
Bell, D.N.F. and Blanchflower, D.G. (2020), ‘US and UK labour markets before and during the Covid-19 crash’, National Institute Economic Review, 252, May.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Blanchard, O. (2020), ‘Designing the fiscal response to the COVID-19 pandemic’, Peterson Institute for International Economics, 8 April.Google Scholar
Caldara, D., Prestipino, A., Iacoviello, M., Molligo, P. and Raffo, A. (2019), ‘The economic effects of trade policy uncertainty’, International Finance Discussion Papers Number 1256, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carreras, O. and Kirby, S. (2016), ‘Is the global trade slowdown a risk to our forecast outlook?’, National Institute Economic Review, February, 235, pp. F14–15.Google Scholar
Chadha, J.S. and Schellekens, P. (1999), ‘Monetary policy loss functions: two cheers for the quadratic’, Bank of England Working Paper no. 101, September.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Constantinescu, C., Mattoo, A. and Ruta, M. (2014), ‘Slow trade’, Finance & Development, 51(4).Google Scholar
Dell’Ariccia, G., Mauro, P., Spilimbergo, A. and Zettelmeyer, J. (2020), ‘Economic policies for the COVID-19 war’, IMF Blog, 1 April.Google Scholar
Dingel, J. and Neiman, B. (2020), ‘How many jobs can be done at home?’, Covid Economics, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Issue 1, 3 April 2020, pp 16–24.Google Scholar
Hantzsche, A. and Liadze, I. (2018), ‘The war on trade: beggar thy neighbour – beggar thyself?’, National Institute Economic Review, 244, May, F46–47.Google Scholar
Hofmann, B., Shim, I and Shin, H.S. (2020), ‘Emerging market economy exchange rates and local currency bond markets amid the Covid-19 pandemic’, BIS Bulletin, No. 5, 7 April.Google Scholar
Hughes, R. (2020), ‘Safeguarding governments’ financial health during coronavirus’, Resolution Foundation Briefing, March.Google Scholar
Hurst, I. and Liadze, I. (2019), ‘Fiscal stimulus in China to boost global growth’, National Institute Economic Review, 248, MayGoogle Scholar
Hurst, I., Liadze, I., Naisbitt, B. and Young, G. (2020), ‘A preliminary assessment of the possible economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak: update’, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, NiGEM Observations, No. 18, 27 March.Google Scholar
Kara, A. and Liadze, I. (2019), ‘The textbook response: using Chinese fiscal policy to offset US tariffs’, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, blog, 2 May.Google Scholar
Kara, A., Liadze, I. and Paczos, M. (2019), ‘The impact of a tariff on automobiles’, National Institute Economic Review, 249, August, pp. F52–54.Google Scholar
Keogh-Brown, M.R., Wren-Lewis, S., Edmunds, W. J., Beutels, P. and Smith, R. D. (2010), ‘The possible macroeconomic impact on the UK of an influenza pandemic’, Health Economics, 19, 11, November, pp. 1345–60.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Kohlscheen, E., Mojon, B. and Rees, D. (2020), ‘The macroeconomic spillover effects of the pandemic on the global economy’, BIS Bulletin, No. 4, 6 April.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lanau, S. and Fortun, J. (2020), ‘The COVID-19 Shock to EM Flows’ Institute of International Finance, Economic Views,Google Scholar
Lee, N. (2020), ‘Eight Principles for the DFI Crisis Response’, Center for Global Development Note, April.Google Scholar
Lennard, J. and Theodoridis, K. (2018), ‘Oil and the macroeconomy’, National Institute Economic Review, 243, February, F48–9.Google Scholar
Lenoel, C., Macchiarelli, C. and Naisbitt, B. (2020), ‘Are the Euro Area and the US en route to Japanisation?’, National Institute Economic Review, 251, February, F52–57.Google Scholar
Liadze, I. (2018a), ‘Trade wars – any winners?’, National Institute Economic Review, 245, August, F47.Google Scholar
Liadze, I. (2018b), ‘Trade wars – the saga continues’, National Institute Economic Review, 246, November, F38–39.Google Scholar
Liadze, I. and Hacche, G. (2017a), ‘The macroeconomic implications of increasing tariffs on US imports’, NiGEM Observations, No 12.Google Scholar
Liadze, I. and Hacche, G. (2017b), ‘US monetary policy and its impact on emerging market economies’, National Institute Economic Review, 240, May, F62–3.Google Scholar
Liadze, I. and Naisbitt, B (2018), ‘Global spillover effects of US monetary tightening’, National Institute Economic Review, 246, November, F42–3.Google Scholar
Liadze, I. and Piggott, R. (2019), Japan consumption tax increase’, National Institute Economic Review, 247, February, F65.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mao, X., Naisbitt, B. and Whyte, K. (2019), ‘Recent inflation trends in emerging economies’, National Institute Economic Review, November, 250, F50–51.Google Scholar
Naisbitt, B. (2018a), ‘The re-emergence of concerns about debt’, National Institute Economic Review, 244, May.Google Scholar
Naisbitt, B. (2018b), ‘The risks of rising global indebtedness’, National Institute Economic Review, 245, August.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Naisbitt, B. and Whyte, K. (2020), ‘The effects of the trade war on inflation’, National Institute Economic Review, February, 251, F38–39.Google Scholar
NIESR (2020), ‘National Institute Monthly GDP Tracker’, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, 9 April.Google Scholar
Reinhart, C. (2020), ‘This time truly is different’, Project Syndicate, 23 March.Google Scholar
Rincon-Aznar, A., Mao, X. and Tong, M. (2020), ‘Global value chains and economic dislocations: an introduction’, National Institiute Economic Review 252, May.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sanchez, P.J. and Young, G. (2019), ‘The (in)effectiveness of the latest round of ECB asset purchases’, National Institute Economic Review, 250, November, pp. F42–43.Google Scholar
Shin, H.S. (2019), ‘What is behind the recent slowdown?’, Presentation at the ‘Public Finance Dialogue’ workshop, German Federal Ministry of Finance and Centre for European Policy Research, May.Google Scholar
Stiglitz, J.E., Shiller, R.J., Gopinath., G., Reinhart, C.M., Posen, A., Prasad, E., Tooze, A., Tyson, L.D. and Mahbubani, K. (2020), ‘How the economy will look after the coronavirus pandemic’, Foreign Policy, 15 April.Google Scholar
Triggs, A. (2018), ‘The economic and political benefits of coordinated fiscal stimulus’, Brookings Institution, Global Economy and Development Working Paper no. 121, November.Google Scholar