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Symbol and Substance: Effects of California's Three Strikes Law on Felony Sentencing

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 January 2024

John R. Sutton
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Abstract

California's “three strikes and you're out” law is the most notorious example of the wave of mandatory sentencing policies that many states enacted beginning in the late 1970s. While advocates and critics predicted the law would have profound effects on aggregate punishment trends and individual case outcomes, Feeley and Kamin's analysis of previous sentencing reforms suggested the law's impact would be mainly symbolic because local officials would ignore, subvert, or nullify its major provisions. While aggregate analyses have tended to confirm this argument, so far there has been no systematic test of the law's effect on individual cases. This analysis uses multilevel models applied to case-level data from 12 urban California counties to test hypotheses about shifts in average punitiveness, the relative influence of legal and extralegal factors on sentencing, and the uncertainty of sentencing outcomes. Results mostly support Feeley and Kamin's symbolic interpretation, but also reveal important substantive impacts: since Three Strikes, sentences have become harsher, particularly in politically conservative counties, and black felons receive longer prison sentences.

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Law & Society Review , Volume 47 , Issue 1 , March 2013 , pp. 37 - 71
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© 2013 Law and Society Association.

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Footnotes

I am grateful to Ryan King, Traci Schlesinger, and LSR reviewers and editors for their careful reading of earlier drafts and thoughtful suggestions for their improvement. Remaining limitations, errors, and verbal infelicities are wholly my responsibility.

References

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Cases Cited

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