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AFRICA'S PROSPECTS FOR ENJOYING A DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  13 February 2017

David E. Bloom ,
Michael Kuhn  and
Klaus Prettner
David E. Bloom*
Affiliation:
Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health
Michael Kuhn
Affiliation:
Vienna Institute of Demography
Klaus Prettner
Affiliation:
University of Hohenheim
*
Address correspondence to: David E. Bloom, Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, 665 Huntington Avenue Building I, 12th Floor, Suite 1202, Boston, Massachusetts 02115, USA; e-mail: dbloom@hsph.harvard.edu
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Abstract:

We assess Africa's prospects for enjoying a demographic dividend. While fertility rates and dependency ratios in Africa remain high, they have started to decline. According to UN projections, they will fall further in the coming decades such that by the mid-21st century, the ratio of the working age to dependent population will be greater than in Asia, Europe, and Northern America. This projection suggests Africa has considerable potential to enjoy a demographic dividend. Whether and when it actually materializes, and also its magnitude, hinges on policies and institutions in key realms that include macroeconomic management, human capital, trade, governance, and labor and capital markets. Given strong complementarities among these areas, coordinated policies will likely be most effective in generating the momentum needed to pull Africa's economies out of a development trap.

Keywords

Africadeclining fertilitydemographic dividenddevelopmenteducationhealthinfrastructureJ11J13J16O10

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Type
Essays
Information
Journal of Demographic Economics , Volume 83 , Issue 1: Short Essays on African Demography and Economic Development , March 2017 , pp. 63 - 76
Copyright
Copyright © Université catholique de Louvain 2017 

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