Hostname: page-component-54dcc4c588-hp6zs Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2025-10-08T15:53:14.024Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Regaining Control? The Political Impact of Policy Responses to Refugee Crises

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  16 March 2021

Omer Solodoch
Get access

Abstract

In response to the political turmoil surrounding the recent refugee crisis, destination countries swiftly implemented new immigration and asylum policies. Are such countercrisis policies effective in mitigating political instability by reducing anti-immigrant backlash and support for radical-right parties? The present study exploits two surveys that were coincidentally fielded during significant policy changes, sampling respondents right before and immediately after the change. I employ a regression discontinuity design to identify the short-term causal effect of the policy change on public opinion within a narrow window of the sampling period. The findings show that both Swedish border controls and the EU–Turkey agreement significantly reduced public opposition to immigration in Sweden and Germany, respectively. In Germany, support for the AfD party also decreased following the new policy. Public opinion time trends suggest that the policy effects were short lived in Sweden but durable in Germany. These effects are similar across different levels of proximity to the border and are accompanied by increasing political trust and a sense of government control over the situation. The findings have implications for understanding the impact of border controls on international public opinion, as well as for assessing the electoral effect of policy responses to global refugee crises.

Keywords

Refugee crisesimmigration policyborder controlspublic backlash

Information

Type
Research Article
Information
International Organization , Volume 75 , Issue 3 , Summer 2021 , pp. 735 - 768
Copyright
Copyright © The IO Foundation 2021

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Article purchase

Temporarily unavailable

References

Abou-Chadi, Tarik, and Wagner, Markus. 2019. The Electoral Appeal of Party Strategies in Postindustrial Societies: When Can the Mainstream Left Succeed? The Journal of Politics 81 (4):1405–19.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Adams, James. 2012. Causes and Electoral Consequences of Party Policy Shifts in Multiparty Elections: Theoretical Results and Empirical Evidence. Annual Review of Political Science 15:401–19.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Balcells, Laia, and Torrats-Espinosa, Gerard. 2018. Using a Natural Experiment to Estimate the Electoral Consequences of Terrorist Attacks. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 115 (42):10624–29.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Bansak, Kirk, Hainmueller, Jens, and Hangartner, Dominik. 2016. How Economic, Humanitarian, and Religious Concerns Shape European Attitudes Toward Asylum Seekers. Science 354 (6309):217–22.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Bansak, Kirk, Hainmueller, Jens, and Hangartner, Dominik. 2017. Europeans Support a Proportional Allocation of Asylum Seekers. Nature Human Behaviour 1 (7):1–6.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Becker, Sascha O., and Ferrara, Andreas. 2019. Consequences of Forced Migration: A Survey of Recent Findings. Labour Economics 59:1–16.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Blom, Annelies G., Bruch, Christian, Felderer, Barbara, Gebhard, Franziska, Herzing, Jessica, and Krieger, Ulrich. 2017a. German Internet Panel, Wave 22 (March 2016). Data file Version 2.0.0 GESIS Data Archive, Cologne, Available at <http://dx.doi.org/10.4232/1.12842>.CrossRef.>Google Scholar
Blom, Annelies G., Gathmann, Christina, and Krieger, Ulrich. 2015. Setting Up an Online Panel Representative of the General Population: The German Internet Panel. Field Methods 27 (4):391–408.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Blom, Annelies G., Herzing, Jessica M.E., Cornesse, Carina, Sakshaug, Joseph W., Krieger, Ulrich, and Bossert, Dayana. 2017b. Does the Recruitment of Offline Households Increase the Sample Representativeness of Probability-Based Online Panels? Evidence from the German Internet Panel. Social Science Computer Review 35 (4):498–520.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bobo, Lawrence. 1983. Whites’ Opposition to Busing: Symbolic Racism or Realistic Group Conflict? Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 45 (6):1196–210.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chou, Winston, Dancygier, Rafaela, Egami, Naoki, and Jamal, Amaney. 2019. The Illusion of Far-Right Partisan Stability: How Party Positioning Affects Far-Right Voting in Germany. SSRN, Available at <https://ssrn.com/abstract=3411075>.Google Scholar
Dinas, Elias, Matakos, Konstantinos, Xefteris, Dimitrios, and Hangartner, Dominik. 2019. Waking Up the Golden Dawn: Does Exposure to the Refugee Crisis Increase Support for Extreme-Right Parties? Political Analysis 27 (2):244–54.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dustmann, Christian, Vasiljeva, Kristine, and Damm, Anna Piil. 2019. Refugee Migration and Electoral Outcomes. The Review of Economic Studies 86 (5):2035–91.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
EMN. 2017. The Changing Influx of Asylum Seekers in 2014–2016: Member States’ Responses. European Migration Network, Country Report Sweden, no. 3.Google Scholar
European Commission, Brussels. 2019a. Eurobarometer 84.3 (2015). Data file. Available at <http://dx.doi.org/10.4232/1.13249>.CrossRef.>Google Scholar
European Commission, Brussels. 2019b. Eurobarometer 89.3 (2018). Data file. Available at <http://dx.doi.org/10.4232/1.13212>.CrossRef.>Google Scholar
Facchini, Giovanni, Margalit, Yotam, and Nakata, Hiroyuki. 2016. Countering Public Opposition to Immigration: The Impact of Information Campaigns. IZA DP No. 10420.Google Scholar
Feldman, Stanley, and Stenner, Karen. 1997. Perceived Threat and Authoritarianism. Political Psychology 18 (4):741–70.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gerber, Alan S., and Green, Donald P.. 2012. Field Experiments: Design, Analysis, and Interpretation. W.W. Norton.Google Scholar
Gessler, Theresa, Tóth, Gergő, and Wachs, Johannes. 2019. No Country for Asylum Seekers? How Short-Term Exposure to Refugees Influences Attitudes and Voting Behavior in Hungary. SocArXiv, Available at <https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/qgpve>.CrossRef.>Google Scholar
Grigorieff, Alexis, Roth, Christopher, and Ubfal, Diego. 2017. Does Information Change Attitudes Towards Immigrants? Representative Evidence from Survey Experiments. IZA DP No. 10419, Available at <ftp://repec.iza.org/RePEc/Discussionpaper/dp10419.pdf>.CrossRef.>Google Scholar
Hangartner, Dominik, Dinas, Elias, Marbach, Moritz, Matakos, Konstantinos, and Xefteris, Dimitrios. 2019. Does Exposure to the Refugee Crisis Make Natives More Hostile? American Political Science Review 113 (2):442–55.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hetherington, Marc J., and Weiler, Jonathan D.. 2009. Authoritarianism and Polarization in American Politics. Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hopkins, Daniel J., Sides, John, and Citrin, Jack. 2019. The Muted Consequences of Correct Information About Immigration. Journal of Politics 81 (1):315–20.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Imai, Kosuke, Keele, Luke, Tingley, Dustin, and Yamamoto, Teppei. 2011. Unpacking the Black Box of Causality: Learning About Causal Mechanisms from Experimental and Observational Studies. American Political Science Review 105 (4):765–89.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jayananthan, Diantha, and Pedersen, Mette. 2018. “A Stronger Denmark” vs. “to Welcome People Seeking Refuge”: An Analysis of Danish and Swedish Newspapers’ and Policy Documents’ Framing of “the Refugee Crisis” and Border Controls. Master's thesis, Malmö University, Faculty of Culture and Society, Malmö, Sweden.Google Scholar
Kaufmann, Eric. 2018. Whiteshift: Populism, Immigration and the Future of White Majorities. Penguin UK.Google Scholar
Kinder, Donald R., and Kam, Cindy D.. 2010. Us Against Them: Ethnocentric Foundations of American Opinion. University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Legewie, Joscha. 2013. Terrorist Events and Attitudes Toward Immigrants: A Natural Experiment. American Journal of Sociology 118 (5):1199–245.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Macdonald, David. 2020. Political Trust and Support for Immigration in the American Mass Public. British Journal of Political Science doi:10.1017/S0007123419000668.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Marbach, Moritz, and Ropers, Guido. 2018. Not in My Backyard: Do Increases in Immigration Cause Political Violence? Working Paper Series, 18–02. Immigration Policy Lab Working Paper Series.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Margalit, Yotam, and Solodoch, Omer. Forthcoming. Against the Flow: Differentiating Between Public Opposition to the Immigration Stock and Flow. British Journal of Political Science.Google Scholar
Meijers, Maurits J., and Williams, Christopher J.. 2020. When Shifting Backfires: The Electoral Consequences of Responding to Niche Party EU Positions. Journal of European Public Policy 27 (10):1506–25.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Muñoz, Jordi, Falcó-Gimeno, Albert, and Hernández, Enrique. 2020. Unexpected Event During Survey Design: Promise and Pitfalls for Causal Inference. Political Analysis 28 (2):186–206.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Niemann, Arne, and Zaun, Natascha. 2018. EU Refugee Policies and Politics in Times of Crisis: Theoretical and Empirical Perspectives. JCMS: Journal of Common Market Studies 56 (1):3–22.Google Scholar
Otto, Alkis Henri, and Steinhardt, Max Friedrich. 2014. Immigration and Election Outcomes—Evidence from City Districts in Hamburg. Regional Science and Urban Economics 45:67–79.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Polanyi, Karl. 1944. The Great Transformation: The Political and Economic Origins of Our Time. Vol. 2. Beacon Press.Google Scholar
Rocha, Rene R., Knoll, Benjamin R., and Wrinkle, Robert D.. 2015. Immigration Enforcement and the Redistribution of Political Trust. The Journal of Politics 77 (4):901–13.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Steinmayr, Andreas. 2020. Contact Versus Exposure: Refugee Presence and Voting for the Far-Right. Review of Economics and Statistics.Google Scholar
Stenner, Karen. 2005. The Authoritarian Dynamic. Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tabellini, Marco. 2020. Gifts of the Immigrants, Woes of the Natives: Lessons from the Age of Mass Migration. The Review of Economic Studies 87 (1):454–86.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Toygür, İlke, and Benvenuti, Bianca. 2016. The European Response to the Refugee Crisis: Angela Merkel on the Move. IPC-Mercator Policy Brief 1:1–12.Google Scholar
UNHCR. 2016. UNHCR Mid-Year Trends 2016. United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees.Google Scholar
Van Hauwaert, Steven M., and Van Kessel, Stijn. 2018. Beyond Protest and Discontent: A Cross-National Analysis of the Effect of Populist Attitudes and Issue Positions on Populist Party Support. European Journal of Political Research 57 (1):68–92.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Weldon, Steven A.. 2006. The Institutional Context of Tolerance for Ethnic Minorities: A Comparative, Multilevel Analysis of Western Europe. American Journal of Political Science 50 (2):331–49.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wright, Matthew, Levy, Morris, and Citrin, Jack. 2016. Public Attitudes toward Immigration Policy across the Legal/Illegal Divide: The Role of Categorical and Attribute-Based Decision-Making. Political Behavior 38 (1):229–53.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Zakaria, Fareed. 2016. Populism on the March: Why the West Is in Trouble. Foreign Affairs 95:9–15.Google Scholar
Ziller, Conrad, and Goodman, Sara Wallace. 2020. Local Government Efficiency and Anti-Immigrant Violence. The Journal of Politics 82 (3):895–907.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Supplementary material: PDF

Solodoch supplementary material

Solodoch supplementary material

Download Solodoch supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 283.6 KB