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Long-Term Effects of Investment in Infant Health Care on Homicide in Italy
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 07 May 2025
Abstract
According to Vila's (1994) perspective, better maternal and infant health care will be reflected in reduced crime rates a generation later. We tested this hypothesis by exploring the relationship between the rates of infant mortality and the lagged rates of homicide (20 years later), controlling for gross domestic product in the 95 Italian provinces. The variables are measured at three points in time : in the middle of the seventies, in the middle of the eighties and in the middle of the nineties. We used LISREL to evaluate the model suggested by the hypotheses; the “nurturance” hypothesis was corroborated by the results on homicide.
Résumé
Dans la perspective de Bryan Vila (1994), une meilleure santé de la mère et de l'enfant se reflète dans une réduction des taux de crimes à la génération suivante. Les auteurs ont testé cette hypothèse en explorant la relation entre les taux de mortalité infantile et les taux de condamnations pour homicide (20 ans plus tard), en tenant compte de la variable de contrôle du produit domestique brut per capita, qui pourrait interférer avec la première variable. Les variables ont été mesurées à trois moments : au milieu des années soixante-dix, quatre-vingt et quatre-vingt-dix, dans les 95 provinces d'Italie. Le programme LISREL a été utilisé et a permis de corroborer l'hypothèse de l'approvisionnement («nur tur ance») de la délinquance, à long terme, par le manque de soins au premier âge.
Resumen
En la perspectiva de Bryan Vila (1994), una mejor salud de la madre y del niño se refleja en una reducción de la tasa de crímenes en la generación siguiente. Los autores han sometido esta hipótesis a prueba explorando la relación entre las tasas de mortalidad infantil y las tasas de condenas por homicidio (20 años más tarde), teniendo en cuenta la variable de control del Producto Interior Bruto por capita que podría interferir con la primera variable. Las variables han sido medidas en tres momentos : a mediados de los años setenta, ochenta y noventa, en las 95 provincias de Italia. El programa LISREL se ha utilizado y ha permitido corroborar la hipótesis del aprovisionamiento («nur tur anee») de la delincuencia, a largo plazo, por la falta de cuidados en la primera infancia.
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- © 2007 International Society for Criminology
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