This study focuses on the impact of industrialization and urbanization on third world crime rate trends. Modernization theory assumes that third world crime is a delayed replay of the Western experience and will decline with the consolidation of an industrial society. Dependency theory assumes that contemporary economic development reflects the interests of the powerful at the expense of indigenous economic development and predicts rising levels of crime as by-product of modernization. In particular it is hypothesized that economic expansion should be accompanied by increased criminal opportunities and a lower level of social frustration over material needs, or, in terms of crime, by higher rates of property crime and lower rates of violent crime. A variety of data is presented in the course of testing this hypothesis which indicate that crime trends are a product of GDP, the price of commodities and luxury goods, housing conditions, and police force expansion. The results clearly indicate that dependency theory has limited explanatory power in accounting for changes in crime trends in Hong Kong 1956-1981, and that modernization theory must take into account increased criminal opportunities, as well as improving living standards if it is to successfully deal with the problem of third world crime.

Discussions of modernization are typically silent about the problem of crime in developing societies. Yet at the same time it is commonly agreed that virtually any area of the world that has been touched by urbanization and modernization can expect to experience high levels of crime. The studies of crime that do exist are cross-sectional examinations of the crime problem in particular developing societies, or they use indicators of development to explain variation between societies. However, there is virtually a complete absence of any systematic effort to examine crime trends and to relate these trends to the social and economic forces which are said to characterize developing countries. The following analysis attempts to correct this omission. Several possible determinants of crime rates identified in historical studies of crime in Western societies and a number of standard indicators of economic development will be used to explain property and violent crime trends in one developing society, Hong Kong.

There are two devergent approaches to the problem of third world crime. One of these works within the framework of traditional development or modernization theory and views development as a linear evolutionary process. A number of observers (Gurr, 1977, Lodhi and Tilly, 1973, Ferdinand, 1967, and Zehr, 1976) have presented evidence that crime was at exceptionally high levels in many western societies in the early nineteenth century, or just when these societies were beginning to experience the full impact of industrialization and urban growth. Similar observations have been made for contemporary societies that attempt to establish a modern industrial economy (Lunden, 1962, 1968; Shelley, 1981). The implication is that crime in developing societies is essentially a “delayed replay” of the Western experience. Third world crime may be at relatively high levels but this can be viewed a temporary problem that should begin to recede once the transition to a modern industrial societt is completed (Clinard and Abbott, 1973; Clifford, 1973, 1974).

According to this view industrial development inevitably increases the potential for nonconformity and hence crime by expanding personal freedom and opportunities for achievement. Crime becomes essentially a social cost that must be paid by any society that wishes to follow the path of modernization. “In short the pain and distress associated with crime should be see, not so much as symptomatic of disease but rather as growing pains” (Morris and Hawkings, 1970: 50).

An alternative and recently emerging approach to the problem of third world crime works within the framework of dependency theory and focuses on the presumed retrogressive effects of capitalist expansion into the third world (Hoogvelt, 1978; Frank, 1980; Oxaal et al., 1975). In this approach third world crime is seen not as an inevitable by-product of economic growth and a raising standard of living, but as a distinct social form developed in capitalist societies and imposed on the third world as part of a social package that accompanies foreign capital investment (Fitzpatrick, 1981; Onselen, 1976; Summer, 1982). In contrast to western development, third world dependency upon external capital has tended to inhibit the growth of internal capital, encouraged capital intensive industries, and generally weakened or destroyed pre-existing traditional economic structures.

Thus, whereas in development theory crime merely serves as a measure of the effective development of a society (Cloward and Abbott, 1973: 11; Lopez-Rey, 1970: 189), crime may now become a symptom of disease, as well as an active force in creating and stablizing underdevelopment (Onselen, 1976; Boerhringer and Giles, 1977). This brings us to the question of research hypotheses. In one way or another modernization theory predicts an eventual decline, or at the very least a levelling off, of crime rates as the fruits of development begin to spread throughout the society. In contrast, dependency theory appears to deny the beneficial effects of a developing industrial economy and appears to suggest that such societies should have to contend with a continuing spiral of crime, or at the very least, hight levels of crime.

It is possible to be more precise than this. Gordon (1971) has argued that most crime is motivated by a desire for material gain and that it is a rational response to the inequalities and insecurities engendered by a modern industrial economy. It is possible to derive two hypotheses about development and crime from this. First, as an economy expands it would be reasonable to suppose that pressures encouraging material gain should expand as well, thereby increasing the number of acts against property. Second, economic decline, or a low standard of economic development, should excerbate existing inequalities and conflicts over the allocation of material resources and as a result be associated with higher levels of violent crime. To put it simply, property crime and decreased violent crime.

If one wishes to study the effects of development on crime, Hong Kong has much to recommend itself as a place of study. Hong Kong resembles other developing countries to the extent that in the postwar years it has had to contend with the effects of extensive social and economic change. Where Hong Kong parts company with other developing countries is in the extent of its development, and it is this departure that provides the researcher with some unique opportunities for studying the effects of development. While, of course, it is open to question as to whether or not economic development in Hong Kong parallels or represents a delayed replay of development in advanced Western industrial societies, there can be little doubt that by the 1970's Hong Kong had started to take on a sufficient number of characteristics of an advanced industrial society to endanger its status as a developing society (1). To put it another way, as an “economic success story” in the developing world Hong Kong offers us with an extreme example of rapid capitalist/industrial development, and, as one of the few remaining colonies of the world, Hong Kong provides an unqualified example of dependent development. This being the case, it would seem reasonable to suppose that if there are any clear or consistent effects associated with development, dependent or otherwise, it would seem logical to expect that they would be especially likely to make their presence felt in Hong Kong.