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Electoral cycles in environmental outcomes in India

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  29 August 2025

Prachi Singh Open the ORCID record for Prachi Singh [Opens in a new window]
Prachi Singh*
Affiliation:
Business School, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, UK
*
Email: prachi.singh@abdn.ac.uk
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Abstract

Environmental outcomes can be shaped by underlying politics. This study investigates whether pre-determined election timings affect these outcomes by combining electoral data with remote sensing data on crop burning, forest fires, slash-and-burn activity, and tree cover for 28 major states (covering approximately 3800 assembly constituencies) in India from 2008 to 2019. Analysing 71 elections during this period reveals evidence of the presence of electoral cycles in environmental outcomes, with non-election years experiencing higher levels of environmentally harmful activities compared to election years. These cycles are more pronounced when the incumbent’s party wins without a supermajority in state elections. The study further shows that specific factors, such as high-yield crop varieties, poverty levels, and Scheduled Tribe population proportions, also shape these environmental outcomes across the electoral cycle.

Keywords

crop burningelectoral cyclesforestsIndiawildfires

JEL classification

O13: Agriculture • Natural Resources • Energy • Environment • Other Primary Products Q54: Climate • Natural Disasters and Their Management • Global Warming Q23: Forestry D72: Political Processes: Rent-Seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

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Type
Research Article
Information
Environment and Development Economics , First View , pp. 1 - 25
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2025. Published by Cambridge University Press.

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