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Published online by Cambridge University Press: 10 July 2025
Background: We previously developed a DNA methylation-based risk predictor for meningioma, which has been used locally in a prospective fashion. As a follow-up, we validate this model using a large prospective cohort and introduce a streamlined next-generation model compatible with newer methylation arrays. Methods: The performance of our next-generation predictor was compared with our original model and standard-of-care 2021 WHO grade using time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves. A nomogram was generated by incorporating our methylation predictor with WHO grade and extent of resection. Results: A total of 1347 meningioma cases were utilized in the study, including 469 prospective cases from 3 institutions and a retrospective cohort of 100 WHO grade 2 cases for model validation. Both the original and next-generation models significantly outperformed 2021 WHO grade in predicting postoperative recurrence. Dichotomizing into grade-specific risk subgroups was predictive of outcome within both WHO grades 1 and 2 tumours (log-rank p<0.05). Multivariable Cox regression demonstrated benefit of adjuvant radiotherapy in high-risk cases specifically, reinforcing its informative role in clinical decision making. Conclusions: This next-generation DNA methylation-based meningioma outcome predictor significantly outperforms 2021 WHO grading in predicting time to recurrence. This will help improve prognostication and inform patient selection for RT.