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Plausible Denial? Reviewing the Evidence of DPRK Culpability for the Cheonan Warship Incident
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 07 May 2025
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The five-page “Investigative Result on the Sinking of ROKS Cheonan” (hereafter “Investigative Result”) released by the Joint Investigative Group on May 20, just over two months after the sinking of the Republic of Korea (ROK or South Korea) warship Cheonan that killed 46 sailors, minced few words in blaming the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK or North Korea) for the catastrophe. “The Cheonan was sunk as the result of an underwater explosion caused by a torpedo made in North Korea. The evidence points overwhelmingly to the conclusion that the torpedo was fired by a North Korea submarine. There is no other plausible explanation,” the report stated. Soon after, the ROK, backed by the United States and Japan, along with a number of Western states including England, France, and Australia, condemned the attack and vowed “stern action,” appealing to the United Nations Security Council to impose stronger sanctions on its northern neighbor. The United States and the ROK also announced plans to conduct joint military drills in the West Sea to deter further DPRK aggression. The DPRK, denying involvement and offering to send its own fact-finding team to participate in the investigation, was rebuffed by the ROK. It then repeated its 1994 threat to turn Seoul into a “sea of fire” should the ROK penalize it over the incident. Russia and China, among the few states that have not signaled acceptance of the conclusions drawn by the Investigative Result, urged restraint and further investigation. Russia initiated its own private investigation and found (but has not yet published) results contrary to those of the Investigative Result. China, countering U.S.-ROK plans to hold military drills, on June 20 began its own six-day live ammunition drill in the East China Sea.
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References
Notes
1 The Joint Investigative Group was composed of ROK civilian and military experts and representatives from the United States, United Kingdom, Sweden, and Australia.
2 “Investigative Result on the Sinking of ROKS Cheonan.” According to Hillary Clinton, this is the shorter or summary version of a 400-page report that South Korea has neither released to the public nor acknowledged. See John McGlynn, “Politics in Command: The ‘International’ Investigation into the Sinking of the Cheonan and the Risk of a New Korean War,” The Asia-Pacific Journal, 24-1-10, June 14, 2010.
3 Russia announced these results to the United States and China, but not the ROK which learned of the results indirectly through these two countries. Lee Yeoung-in, “Government protests Russia's Conflicting Cheonan findings,” Hankyoreh.
4 Barbara Demick and John M. Glionna, “Doubts surface on North Korea's role in ship sinking,” July 23, 2010, Los Angeles Times.
5 Victor Cha, “The Aftermath of the Cheonan,” Center for Strategic & International Studies (May 25, 2010).
6 Scott Snyder, “The Cheonan Attack: Torpedoing Chance of Peace?” YaleGlobal Online.
7 Bruce Klingner, “U.S. Must Respond Firmly to North Korean Naval Attack” (June 3, 2010). Nautilus Institute, Policy Forum Online.
8 Quoted in Democracy Now! The War and Peace Report (May 27, 2010). and Tania Branigan and Justin McCurry, “Hillary Clinton Condemns North Korean Torpedo Attack,” The Guardian, May 21, 2010.
9 This letter was sent by People's Solidarity for Participatory Democracy (PSPD), a South Korean NGO that is currently under investigation by the ROK government.
10 The Seoul National Assembly consists of 291 legislators. The final tally of the vote was 161 for, 70 against, and 4 abstentions. Thus 54 legislators, probably members of the opposition Democratic Party who walked out without participating, did not cast a vote. “National Assembly Condemns Cheonan Sinking,” Chosun Ilbo (June 30, 2010).
11 U.S. intelligence circulated this rumor, adding that it was “based on their sense of the political dynamics there [in the DPRK] rather than hard evidence.” See “Report: Kim Jong Il ordered Cheonan attack” (May 23, 2010).
12 “[Cheonan Warship Report 2] Eight questions needing answers on the Investigation of the Sunken Naval Corvette Cheonan” (June 4, 2010).
13 Seunghun Lee and J.J. Suh, “Rush to Judgment: Inconsistencies in South Korea's Cheonan Report,” The Asia-Pacific Journal, 28-1-10, July 12, 2010.
14 Scott Creighton, “The Sinking of the Cheonan: We are being lied to,” (May 24, 2010),.
15 “Cheonan Investigators Presented Wrong Torpedo Diagram,” Chosun ilbo (June 30, 2010),.
16 David Cyranoski “Controversy over South Korea's sunken ship” (July 8, 2010), Nature News.
17 Tanaka Sakai, “Who Sank the South Korean Warship Cheonan? A New Stage in the US-Korean War and US-China Relations,” The Asia-Pacific Journal, 21-1-10, May 24, 2010.
18 The continuation of these war exercises through the time of the Cheonan's sinking was reported three days after the incident in “Korea, US Mount Largest Joint Rescue Operations.” The Korea Times (March 29, 2010),.
19 Kim Myong Chol, “South Korea in the line of friendly fire,” Asia Times (May 26, 2010).
20 The DPRK does not recognize the Northern Limit Line (NLL), which was established on August 30, 1953 by the United Nations after it failed to reach agreement with the DPRK on possession of the waterways surrounding Paekryong and other islands determined to be ROK territory by the armistice signed one month earlier by China, the United States, and North Korea. Thus, the DPRK disputes the NLL rather than the ROK's possessions of islands north of the 38th parallel, as stipulated by the cease-fire armistice.
21 “S.Korea-U.S anti-submarine drill conducted night of Cheonan sinking,” The Hankyoreh (June 10, 2010).
22 “Some Korean Religious Leaders Question Conclusions of the Cheonan sinking investigation” (May 28, 2010).
23 Ibid.
24 “Russia Wants ‘100% Proof’ N. Korea Sunk Ship” (May 27, 2010), Yahoo News; and “Russian Experts Unconvinced by Cheonan Evidence,” Intelligence Quarterly June 18, 2010).
25 Christine Oliver, “China vow on S Korean warship strike” (May 28, 2010), Financial Times.
26 Sunny Lee, “China has different view on Cheonan” (July 18, 2010),.
27 Various sources have noted division between international and ROK investigators, and particularly the reluctance of the Swedish participant to accept the findings. See McGlynn, “Politics in Command.”
28 The ROK president used the history of his country's conflict with the DPRk as background for the present tragedy, and to request the international community's continued support in its petition to the United Nations Security Council. “Keynote Address, Lee Myung-bak, The International Institute for Strategic Studies (June 4, 2010).
29 “G-8 Countries Confirm Seoul's Cheonan Stance,” Joongang Daily (June 28, 2010). This response apparently did not gain Russia's support.
30 “Defense Chief Calls Internet Rumors on Cheonan ‘Cyber Terrorism,‘” Napsnet Daily Report (June 9, 2010),.
31 “Civic Group Challenges Cheonan Report at UN, JoongAng Daily (June 15, 2010), The group has been investigated over its letter to the UN. “Gov't Goes after Civic Group, “JoongAng Daily (June 18. 2010),
32 David Cyranoski “Controversy over South Korea's sunken ship”
33 Bruce Cumings' interview is found at Democracy Now (May 27, 2010).
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