The causes of the 2021 military coup in Myanmar were too complex to be reduced to a clash of wills between opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi and Tatmadaw Commander-in-Chief Min Aung Hlaing, but such a notion was attractive in its simplicity. Myanmar has long had a tradition of personalized politics, and in some ways the coup fitted into this pattern. It also strengthens the view that, in Myanmar, there is no tradition of sharing power and that politics is a zero-sum game.

Anyone looking at photographs and film footage of events in Myanmar could be forgiven for thinking that the violent confrontation between demonstrators and security forces represents a proxy battle between the ousted State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi and the Commander-in-Chief (C-in-C) of Defence Services, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing.

The demonstrators carry placards depicting the National League for Democracy (NLD) leader. Crowds have staged sit-down protests wearing cardboard masks of her face. Min Aung Hlaing also features on their placards, but his face is disfigured by large crosses. Streets have been covered with such posters.

Such a binary view is attractive in its simplicity, but it fails to take into account the complex problems which, in ways that are yet to be determined, lie behind the 1 February military coup. At another level, however, the idea has some merit, in that it acknowledges the country's tradition of highly personalised politics and the ability of select individuals in Myanmar, if the time is right, to alter the course of history.

It has long been the case that political parties, civil society organisations and armed groups in Myanmar coalesce around powerful and charismatic figures. Institutions are generally weak, and bureaucracies are inefficient and corrupt. Declared policy is rarely seen as the firm basis for future action. Legitimacy derives not so much from structural foundations but from intangible factors such as a person's character, background and karma.

Such figures act in turn as patrons (saya), gathering around themselves acolytes (tapyit) who owe their loyalty more to their leader than to any institution or policy platform. The NLD, for example, started with a collective leadership and broad manifesto but soon came to rely for its effectiveness on the popularity and personality of Aung San Suu Kyi, the daughter of Aung San, Myanmar's revered independence hero, who was assassinated in 1947.