The focus of the first five years (2013-2018) of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) was on the economic dimensions, laced with a tinge of politics. It is likely that the next five years of this ambitious project – while making headway in the economic domain and acquiring a greater political flavour – will also attain a security dynamic that has the potential to become the basis of a future global security system, with ramifications for the Gulf.

This chapter focuses on two interconnected issues: one, the already-evident traces of the BRI's economic-political-security linkages; and two, how this security feature may or may not expand to fit into China's wider defence policy, which includes a naval plan extending into the Indian Ocean, comprising the Gulf countries.

The first part argues that since a large part of the BRI routes are vulnerable to multiple tensions, it is most likely that increasing Chinese investments would see a corresponding increase in Chinese security presence to protect its interests. This strategy is already evident through the expanding presence of private security firms, with retired personnel from the People's Liberation Army (PLA), along the Belt and Road routes. It also suggests that the establishment of a naval base in Djibouti in 2017 could be a forerunner to its probable and larger security role in the future.

The second part analyses how this economic-centric security outline could expand to acquire a much more political-centric security slant, offering potential alternatives to the existing US-centric architecture in the region.

While doing so, it also seeks to undercut the notion that the United States is a ‘diminishing’ security player in the Middle East and the Gulf. Concurrently, without ruling out that China could be an alternative force for the security of the region, it points out that the current ground realities of Chinese security expansion and capabilities are still no match for America's security capabilities in the region and the Indian Ocean.

It concludes that while it is important for the Gulf countries to strengthen security ties with the United States, it is equally important to explore alternative mechanisms, including collective security, that include a role not just for China, but for a host of other countries that have a stake in the region's stability.